Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/01/2023

by Rod Pearson

Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Thursday, June 1, 2023
Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Where to Watch:  ABC


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5; Over/Under:  219 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5; Over/Under:  219.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5; Over/Under:  219.5 points

Season Record

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)
Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Recent Form
Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10
Denver Nuggets:  8-2 last 10


Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Preview and Analysis


The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Boston Celtics in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 28 while Caleb Martin was next on the team with 26 points. Bam Adebayo led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Caleb Martin and Bam Adebayo each led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 48.8% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 83.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 44-55-3 this season and their O/U record is 52-50.



The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 34-7 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 6 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns twice in a row and the Los Angeles Lakers in their last 4 games. In game 4 of that series, Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 30 while Jamal Murray was next on the team with 25 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 13 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 48.2% from the field, 36.4% from 3-point range, and 86.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 53-43-1 this season and their O/U record is 46-50-1.


Heat vs Nuggets Prediction

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as an 8.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Western Conference Champion Nuggets and the 8th seeded Eastern Conference Champion Heat for the NBA Finals. The Heat are entering this game after winning their series against the Celtics 4-3 in game 7 while the Nuggets are entering this game after sweeping their series against the Lakers in 4 games. The Heat have not had a lot of time to rest as the Nuggets have been off for over a week from when their series ended, but that could also work against the Nuggets as a long layoff like that will take them out of their groove and they will get out to a slower start in this 1st game back. The Heat are really warmed up though having played so many games in their last series and they have already served as giant killers in these playoffs since they have taken out both the 1st and 2nd seeds in the East. The Heat have a lot of momentum behind them entering this series and they can use the long layoff of the Nuggets to their advantage by coming out strong from the start of this game and trying to steal the home advantage in this series right away. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game.

Heat Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, June 1, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 106 Nuggets 101.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert basketball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Miami Heat Denver Nuggets prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NBA predictions and previews.

NBA Betting Trends


Miami Heat: 15-28 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 0-10 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games. 8-2 OVER after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games. 16-8 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.

Denver Nuggets: 29-19 ATS in home games. 13-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 13-7 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 11-4 OVER when playing with 3 or more days rest.

Key Injuries


Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Early June - Leg.


Notable Quotes


“Sometimes you have to suffer for the things that you really want. This group has shown fortitude, when there are inevitable letdowns and failures, to have that perseverance to pick yourself up, to have that collective spirit to keep on forging ahead until you get to accomplish what you want to.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Celtics in their game on Monday which ended the series 4-3, game 7 of that series.


“For that game to go down to the wire and for the ball to be in LeBron James’ hands, those seconds were an eternity. When the buzzer went off, it was almost surreal for a second. Couldn’t be more proud of this group.” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the LA Lakers on Monday, May 22 which ended the series in a 4-0 sweep, game 4 of that series


Starting Lineups


Miami Heat
PG Gabe Vincent
SG Max Strus
SF Jimmy Butler
PF Kevin Love
C Bam Adebayo

Denver Nuggets
PG Jamal Murray
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF Michael Porter Jr.
PF Aaron Gordon
C Nikola Jokic

Statistical Leaders


Miami Heat
PPG: J. Butler (22.9)
APG: J. Butler (5.3)
Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Denver Nuggets
PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)
APG: N. Jokic (9.8)
Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

Coaches:
Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)
Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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