Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/07/2024

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, March 7, 2024

Venue:  American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +5, Mavericks -5; Over/Under:  228.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +5, Mavericks -5; Over/Under:  228.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +5, Mavericks -5; Over/Under:  228.5 points

Miami Heat:  35-26 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

Dallas Mavericks:  34-28 (2nd place, Southwest Division)

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Miami Heat:  8-2 last 10

Dallas Mavericks:  5-5 last 10

The Heat are entering this game with a 35-26 record overall and they are 18-13 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Utah Jazz and the Detroit Pistons in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 26 while Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson each were next on the team with 18 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 49.4% from the field, 45.2% from 3-point range, and 87% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.9 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 30-30-1 this season and their O/U record is 24-37.

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 34-28 record overall and they are 18-15 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with losses coming against the Boston Celtics, the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Indiana Pacers in their last game. Luka Dončić led the team in points in that game with 39 while Kyrie Irving was next on the team with 23 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Luka Dončić and Daniel Gafford each led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 48.4% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 81% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 118.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 118.3 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 32-30 this season and their O/U record is 31-30-1.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Heat have looked good in their games this season with their 35-26 record overall which has them surging up the standings in the East and now in a playoff spot. They have also looked good in their road games this year with their 18-13 road record. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have looked good in their games this season with their 34-28 record overall, but that record also has them in a play-in spot right now for the playoffs in the West. They haven't looked great on their home court this season either with their 18-15 home record. The Mavericks haven't looked good in their games lately either with their 5-5 record in their last 10 games and they have no momentum on their side at the moment, coming into this one with 3 losses in a row. The Heat have been the much hotter team lately with their 8-2 record in their last 10 games and they have some momentum on their side coming into this one with 2 wins in a row now. The Heat have been surging up the standings in the East at the right time and they can take advantage of how bad the Mavericks have been lately with the potential to pull off an upset win here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Mavericks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, March 7, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 110 Mavericks 106.

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Miami Heat: 26-17 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less. 5-1 ATS against Southwest division opponents. 11-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. 19-12 OVER off 2 home no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite. 

Dallas Mavericks: 4-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 9-16 ATS against Southeast division opponents. 4-14 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more. 14-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 11-6 OVER after a loss by 10 points or more. 8-4 OVER after 3 or more consecutive losses.

Miami Heat:  T. Herro (SG) Out indefinitely - Knee. K. Love (PF) Ques Thurs - Heel. J. Richardson (SG) Mid March - Shoulder.

Dallas Mavericks:  None.

“These next 21 games, there's probably going to be a lot of these. It's just the way it's going right now. Everybody's fighting for playoff positioning.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Pistons in their game on Tuesday.

“This is actually a great test for us to be able to go through a hard time in March because it only gets harder in April and May." - Jason Kidd after his team’s loss against the Pacers in their game on Tuesday.

PG Terry Rozier

SG Duncan Robinson

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Caleb Martin

C Bam Adebayo

PG Luka Doncic

SG Kyrie Irving

SF Josh Green

PF P.J. Washington 

C Dereck Lively II 

PPG: J. Butler (21.9)

APG: T. Rozier (6.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10.3)

PPG: L. Doncic (34.6)

APG: L. Doncic (9.8)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (9)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (16th season)

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)