Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/20/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Sunday, April 20, 2025

Venue:  Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +12, Cavaliers -12; Over/Under:  215 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +12.5, Cavaliers -12.5; Over/Under:  215 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +12.5, Cavaliers -12.5; Over/Under:  215.5 points

Miami Heat:  37-45 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

Cleveland Cavaliers:  64-18 (1st place, Central Division)

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Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10

Cleveland Cavaliers:  6-4 last 10

The Heat are entering the playoffs with a 37-45 record overall this season and they were 17-23 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Chicago Bulls and the Atlanta Hawks. Tyler Herro led the team in points in that game with 30 while Andrew Wiggins was next on the team with 20 points. Andrew Wiggins led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 50% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range, and 61.1% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 40-43-1 this season and their O/U record is 45-39.

The Cavaliers are entering the playoffs with a 64-18 record overall this season and they were 34-7 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Indiana Pacers. Jaylon Tyson led the team in points in that game with 31 while Sam Hauser was next on the team with 15 points. Craig Porter Jr. led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Tristan Thompson led the team in rebounds with 20. They were 38.3% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 54.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 121.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.4 PPG against them. The Cavaliers have an ATS record of 48-33-1 this season and their O/U record is 51-31.

The current betting odds have the Cavaliers listed as a 12 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Cavaliers and the 8th seeded Heat from the Eastern Conference for the 1st round of the NBA playoffs. The Cavaliers have looked great in their games this season with their 64-18 record overall which had them at the top of the East with one of the best records in the entire NBA. They have also looked great on their home court this year with their 34-7 home record. Meanwhile, the Heat haven't looked good in their games this season with their 37-45 record overall which almost had them miss the playoffs, and they haven't been a good road team either with their 17-23 road record. The Heat were the 10 seed to finish the regular season and won both of their games in the play-in tournament over the Bulls and the Hawks just to get here, but they still haven't been a good team for most of the season and also benefited from a very weak Eastern Conference. They got by 2 bad teams to get to this playoff series, but the Cavaliers are a 64-18 team and they are going to be a completely different animal for the Heat. The Cavaliers weren't at their best to finish the regular season, but they didn't need to be since they had locked up the number 1 seed in the East. They had a chance to rest some players who were dealing with injuries, and now those players have had an extra week of rest to get ready for this series. The Heat aren't going to look like the same team in this series that they looked like in the play-in tournament. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Cavaliers Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 20, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Cavaliers 116 Heat 99.

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Miami Heat: 25-36 ATS against Central division opponents. 19-25 ATS on the road off a road win. 11-22 1H ATS in all playoff games. 42-23 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 26-12 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.

Cleveland Cavaliers: 6-3 ATS off a loss against a division rival. 71-44 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 9-4 ATS when playing with 3 or more days rest. 9-3 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs. 30-19 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

Miami Heat:  K. Love (PF) Day To Day - Personal. D. Smith (PG) Out For Season - Achilles.

Cleveland Cavaliers:  D. Mitchell (SG) Day To Day - Ankle. M. Strus (SF) Day To Day - Knee. D. Garland (PG) Day To Day - Toe. E. Mobley (PF) Day To Day - Back. T. Jerome (SG) Day To Day - Knee.

“I know how badly our group wanted to get into this thing. I could see it in their eyes and feel it in their heart.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Hawks in the play-in tournament on Friday.

"In the purest sense of more force and aggression is rebounding. He should be a better rebounder. He just should - all the talent he has, all the IQ he has, all the ability he has to read the ball off the rim." - Kenny Atkinson on how he wants Evan Mobley to play in the playoffs.

PG Tyler Herro 

SG Alec Burks

SF Andrew Wiggins

PF Bam Adebayo

C Kel'el Ware

PG Darius Garland

SG Donovan Mitchell

SF Max Strus

PF Evan Mobley

C Jarrett Allen

PPG: T. Herro (23.9)

APG: T. Herro (5.5)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.6)

PPG: D. Mitchell (24)

APG: D. Garland (6.7)

Reb/G: J. Allen (9.7)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (17th season)

Cleveland Cavaliers: Kenny Atkinson (1st season)