Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Friday, May 27th, 2022 

Venue:   TD Garden, Boston Massachusetts  

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Celtics -8.5; O/U 201

Fanduel:  Celtics -8.5; O/U 201

BetMGM: Celtics -8.5; O/U 201.5

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 2-3 in the series

Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eatsern Conference, 3-2 in the series

An NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 6.  This amazing series has led to a series of exchanging wins and losses between the two best teams in the Eastern Conference.  It has been almost great.  A great series would feature close games… this one hasn’t. The Heat blow out the Celtics, the Celtics blow out the Heat and back and forth.  The chief problem that has prevented close games has been bad 3-point shooting, but both clubs insist on taking more three-point shots than most teams have ever taken in NBA history.  This repetitive horribleness has gotten so bad that in the Game 5 the Heat went 7 of 45 from 3-point range (38 missed 3-pointers) while the Celtics went 10 of 33 from 3-point range (22 missed threes).  I hate to be the stick in the mud in any millennial basketball… but when the Heat actually made progress against a mountain of a deficit it was when C Bam Adebayo scored on 3 possessions in a row in the paint, late in the 4th quarter.  The truth is that had Miami simply worked the paint and shot 0 3-pointers… they would have won 120 - 93 instead of losing 93-80.  That sounds dumb because every talking head will tell you it is… but the first team to outlaw 3’s in the current environment will not only win easily… they will foul out the opposing center and power forward in a matter of minutes.  In any sport the moment to change your approach is the moment that everyone in the league is built to play the opposite way.  Will either team try this ?... Not likely.  Let’s find the great betting opportunity as the point spread has risen and the O/U has shrunk… in a possible elimination game for the Miami Heat.

The Miami Heat got punked.  For whatever reason every player on the team decided to shoot the ball with their eyes closed while holding their breath.  They lost Game 5 93-80 and it wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.  They started out OK by going into halftime up by 5 points… but by the end of the third quarter the Celtics were on the move and would not look back.  The Heat have won 5 of their last ten games.  They have gone 5-5 ATS.  When they lose they do not cover the spread.  They are 5 Over and 5 Under…. This 5-5-5-5 results out of ten games played tends to indicate that the other team is in charge of everything.  The Heat only got 13 points from a hobbled SF Jimmy Butler in 40 minutes of play.  It is excruciating to Heat fans that have watched Butler play amazing 2-way basketball all season.  Butler is hurting. C Bam Adebayo was the Heat’s high scorer with 18 points and 10 rebounds… Bam Adebayo revealed the formula for winning game 5:  Do Not Shoot 3’s!!  Just spend a single game playing old school basketball of pounding the paint and hitting elbow jumpers.  The Heat hit only 16% of the 3-pointers they took, which would have been fine if they only took 8-9 threes… but they took FORTY-FIVE 3 POINT SHOTS while missing 38 OF THEM!!!  Imagine a replay of Game 5 where the Heat simply took zero threes and instead shot 43% from inside the key?... It would have meant a big win.  

The Boston Celtics have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 6-3-1 ATS during that stretch.  They have 5 Over and 5 Under.  In the last win Boston got 25 points from Jaylen Brown… 2 points from Jayson Tatum… and the actual hero was once again 35 year old Power Forward Al Horford… Al has 16 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 timely blocks.  They also got yet another great game from the hobbled C Robert Williams III whose 6 points and 10 rebounds paled in comparison to the 3 amazingly athletic BLOCKED SHOTS.  C Robert Williams III played only 26 minutes, but he and Al no doubt secured the win. PG Derrick White played more minutes than PG Marcus Smart out of necessity… Marcus Smart is hobbled with injury and trying to play through… Derrick proved ready for the moment with a host of fantastic defensive plays.  If the Celtics can close this series out without having to play Marcus more than 15-20 minutes… then the trade-deadline deal for Derrick White from San Antonio will go from good to great move.  

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Miami is 63-35 on the season, but 55-42-1 ATS.  They have logged 54 Over, 44 Under, and 1 Push.  They are 27-21 on the road.

Boston is 62-36 on the season, but 55-41-2 ATS.  They have notched 47 Over, 49 Under, and 2 Push.    They are 33-16 in home games.

Miami is 17th in scoring with 110.0 points per game, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while allowing 105.6 ppg from opponents.  

 

Our prediction for Friday, May 27th is…..    Celtics 105 - Heat 95

The Celtics will win at home. The Celtics will move on.  The Celtics will cover.  My great mistake was thinking occasionally one of these teams will make a few shots… they apparently will not.  That is causing me to avoid the Over/Under… in any game they do make shots the very low O/U number will be blown away… but the staggering number of Unders that have cashed leads me to believe Vegas will keep moving the O/U number down to catch you.  Just bet the Celtics to win and cover.  

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Boston is 69-53 ATS versus Miami since 1996.

Miami is 19-8 ATS as an underdog this season.

Boston is 23-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or less.

Boston is 8 Over and 2 Under in the conference finals the last 3 seasons.

Heat: SG Tyler Herro (Quad) Quest

Celtics: SF Sam Hauser (shoulder) Out… The guys are all banged up but everyone will be available to play.  The same should be considered about the Heat.

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III, SFG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Heat: Erik “I’ve had better players” Spoelstra

Celtics: Ime “Best defense is my doing!” Udoka