Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Saturday, May 21st, 2022 

Venue:   TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts  

Where to Watch:  ABC 

DraftKings:  Celtics -6.5; O/U 207.5

Fanduel:  Celtics -6.5; O/U 207.5

BetMGM: Celtics -6.5; O/U 207.5

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 1-1 in the series

Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference; 1-1 in the series

An NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 3.  The first two games were two sides of a coin.  They were night and day.  The Heat won Game 1 118 - 107… The crowd in Miami was rocking the stands with cheering that wouldn’t stop.  The role players on the Heat hit shots and were led by an amazing performance from their leader, SF Jimmy Butler.  A good time was had by all.  The Crowd did not really take into account that the Celtics were missing two key starters… They also didn’t put too much stock into the fact that the Celtics went into halftime with a solid lead.  Game 2, also in Miami, featured a full strength Celtics team.  PG Marcus Smart, the Defensive player of the year, returned from the injury list along with PF Al Horford who is the Celtics' best two-way big man.  The Crowd in Miami found very little to cheer for… oh sure they were loud at the start when the home team Heat went up by 10 points!  That was nice… but then the Celtics went on a 17-0 run… taking the lead and growing it through the rest of the game.  You could have meditated in the quiet the Miami Crowd produced as the final score bloomed to 127-102.  I had predicted (in this space) a 115 - 100 finish in favor of the Celtics… turns out that was a conservative prediction.  I based it on the return of Marcus Smart… Marcus’s presence playing defense opens the floor for Celtics shooters.  That is close to how it played out… how the score bloomed was that Marcus also scored 21 points while playing that exemplary defense… It was a good day for building the bankroll.  So, who do we bet on in Game 3?… It’ll be the first game on the Celtics home floor… The Celtics are favored by 6.5 points.  Will the Heat respond?... Will the Celtics keep plowing?  Let’s check the numbers.

The Miami Heat have won 7 of their last 10 games.  They went 6-4 during that stretch. They are 4 Over and 6 Under.  The Heat were riding high when Jimmy Butler got 41 points in the first game of the series.. They won!  Except in the second game, a loss of 127-102, Jimmy only had 29 points. While still a great game, 29 points was the lone bright spot for the Heat.  SG Gabe Vincent only had 14 points and SG Victor Oladipo only had 14 points. After that the Heat really had no other scorers. SG Tyler Herro was dead with only 11 points and awfully out of place on the defensive end… SF Duncan Robinson finally got into a game for 14 minutes… he came out with a simple 6 points.  It’s hard to fall out of the rotation and then be expected to heat up for the Heat.  PF PJ Tucker left the game with a series of limping maladies… Without a doubt the biggest disappointment was C Bam Adebayo who got 6 points in 28 minutes with 9 rebounds… If your Center is only going to get you 6 points?... He needs 20 rebounds to justify being on the court against the Celtics.

The Boston Celtics have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 6-3-1 ATS during that stretch.  They have 5 Over and 5 Under.  You can not avoid knowing that the Celtics ranked FIRST in defense this season.  They are still first in defense in the Playoffs.  The Celtics calling card is simple:  They have a big defensive PG Marcus Smart who fits into a starting five that can easily switch on D. It’s that simple.  The scorers SG Jaylen Brown and superstar SF Jayson Tatum are two-way guys… They play D! The role players C Robert Williams III and PF Al Horford also play defense at a high level.  PG Marcus Smart brings it altogether.   They get stops and CAN get buckets at every position.  That is a winning formula.  In winning Game 2 the Celtics got 27 points from Jasyson Tatum, 24 points from Jaylen Brown, 24 points form Marcus Smart, and 19 points form PF Grant Williams… They scored and scored and scored.  Celtics Center Robert Williams III landed 5 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 blocks… in 19 minutes.  Robert is hobbled so expect the Celtics to take him out of every moment of every game that they can afford to have him sit.  Robert’s effort is of course seen on the defensive end… and he played great for the small amount of time… making Heat C Bam Adebayo’s production even more curious.

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The Heat are 62-33 on the season, but 54-40-1 ATS.  They have logged 53 Overs and 42 Unders.  They are 26-20 in road games.

The Celtics are 60-35 on the season, but 53-40-2 ATS.  They have notched 46 Overs, 47 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 32-15 in home games.  

The Miami Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th with 105.6 ppg.

The Boston Celtics are 12th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense They rank First while holding opponents to 104.5 ppg.  

 

Our prediction for Saturday, May 21st is…..  Celtics 108 - Heat 99

For sure the Celtics win again.  They are back on their home court… They have everybody available.  The Question is whether they can cover the 6.5 point spread.  I think it is a foregone conclusion.  A Heat loss is tied to the Heat role players not hitting shots.  There aren’t going to be close games in this series.  If the Heat do win (game 4 or back at home) it will be because they went on a shooting binge and blew out the Celtics… not because it was close and the Heat hit the last shot.

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Boston is 67-52 ATS versus Miami since 1996.

Miami is 18-6 ATS as an underdog this season.

Miami is 7 Over and 0 Under in the conference finals the last 3 seasons.

Heat: PJ Tucker (knee) Quest ** PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) Quest (but really out) 

Celtics: SG Nick Stauskas (knee) OUT * PG Derrick White (personal) Quest (but will be back)

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, SG Gabe Vincent, PG Max Strus

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III, PG Marcus Smart, SG Jaylen Brown

Heat: Erik Spoelstra

Celtics: Ime Udoka