Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/29/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Monday, May 29, 2023

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +7, Celtics -7; Over/Under:  203.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +7, Celtics -7; Over/Under:  203 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +7.5, Celtics -7.5; Over/Under:  203.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

Boston Celtics:  57-25 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10

Boston Celtics:  5-5 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with all 3 losses coming against the Boston Celtics in their last 3 games. In game 6 of this series, Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 24 while Caleb Martin was next on the team with 21 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Caleb Martin led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 35.5% from the field, 46.7% from 3-point range, and 79.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 43-55-3 this season and their O/U record is 52-49.

The Celtics finished the regular season with a 57-25 record overall and they were 32-9 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with all 3 wins coming against the Miami Heat in their last 3 games. In game 6 of this series, Jayson Tatum led the team in points in that game with 31 while Jaylen Brown was next on the team with 26 points. Derrick White led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Jayson Tatum led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 43.6% from the field, 20% from 3-point range, and 85.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.4 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 56-45 this season and their O/U record is 53-46-2.

The current betting odds have the Celtics listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 7 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for the Eastern Conference finals of the NBA playoffs. This series is all tied up 3-3 after the Heat jumped out to an early 3-0 lead in the series but the Celtics came storming back with 3 wins in a row to even it up now. The Celtics have not only taken back the home advantage in this series with the final game on deck now, but they have also flipped the momentum completely in their favor with 3 straight wins. They are on the verge of making NBA history by being the only team to ever erase a 3-0 series deficit and go on to advance. They were really fortunate to force a game 7 with the way game 6 ended but now that they have, all the momentum is on their side and they have clearly been the stronger team in the last few games of this series. The Celtics have come too far to blow this now and all the pressure is on the Heat here as they are the team that was up 3-0 in the series and blew it while the Celtics have been playing on borrowed time but they are also an incredible team when facing elimination and they are going to close out this series after the Heat failed to do so the last 3 games in a row. The best way to place a bet here is on the Celtics to cover the spread in this game.

Heat Celtics Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, May 29, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Celtics 123 Heat 102.

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Miami Heat: 7-14 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent. 14-28 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 22-13 UNDER after scoring 105 points or less. 14-8 UNDER off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. 

Boston Celtics: 25-13 ATS after a game where both teams scored 105 points or less. 10-5 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less. 10-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series. 11-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less.

Miami Heat:  G. Vincent (SG) Ques Mon - Ankle. V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

Boston Celtics:  M. Brogdon (SG) Ques Mon - Forearm. D. Gallinari (SF) out for season - Knee.

“I don't know how we're going to get this done, but we're going to go out there and get it done. And that's what the next 48 hours is about. There's been nothing easy about this season for our group, and so we just have to do it the hard way.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Celtics in their game on Saturday, game 6 of this series.

“Faith. Love. Togetherness. Physicality. Belief. Hope. All those things combined. It starts with the locker room. Those guys had a choice to make and they chose to believe in each other.” - Joe Mazzulla after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Saturday, game 6 of this series.

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PG Marcus Smart

SG Derrick White

SF Jaylen Brown

PF Jayson Tatum

C Robert Williams III

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: J. Tatum (30.1)

APG: M. Smart (6.3)

Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.8)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (1st season)