Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/25/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Thursday, May 25, 2023

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +8, Celtics -8; Over/Under:  215.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +8, Celtics -8; Over/Under:  215.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +7.5, Celtics -7.5; Over/Under:  215.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

Boston Celtics:  57-25 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Miami Heat:  7-3 last 10

Boston Celtics:  5-5 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Boston Celtics in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 29 while Gabe Vincent was next on the team with 17 points. Kyle Lowry led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Jimmy Butler led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 43.6% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 82.1% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 42-54-3 this season and their O/U record is 52-47.

The Celtics finished the regular season with a 57-25 record overall and they were 32-9 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Miami Heat in their last game. Jayson Tatum led the team in points in that game with 33 while Jaylen Brown was next on the team with 17 points. Jayson Tatum led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Jayson Tatum led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 51.2% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.4 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 55-44 this season and their O/U record is 53-44-2.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as an 8 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for the Eastern Conference finals of the NBA playoffs. The Heat are entering this game with a 3-1 series lead after failing to sweep the Celtics on their home court in game 4. They allowed the Celtics to have some life pumped back into them with that road win in Miami and now come back home with a chance to make the series 3-2, but the Celtics have still struggled a lot in their home games these playoffs and the Heat have looked like the better team in every game so far. The Celtics may have some life now but they still have to win 3 games in a row to get out of this series and they have already lost both home games played in this series. The Heat will bring a much better effort in this game to close out the series and even if they can't get it done in Boston, they will keep this game close enough to cover the spread as the Celtics haven't looked like a team that can consistently blow out the Heat with how good they have been. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game.

Heat Celtics Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, May 25, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 112 Celtics 102.

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Miami Heat: 12-5 ATS in all playoff games. 11-6 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. 8-2 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 8-2 OVER when leading in a playoff series.

Boston Celtics: 7-17 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games. 16-26 ATS off an upset win of 15 points or more as a road underdog. 7-1 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 29-19 OVER as a home favorite. 

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

Boston Celtics:  D. Gallinari (SF) out for season - Knee.

“They got us tonight. You have to give them credit for that. There's no doubt about it. There's no questioning it. We're not wondering about that. They deserved to win tonight. We have to regroup and get ready for a great opportunity in Boston.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Celtics in their game on Tuesday, game 4 of this series. 

“We can't relax. We have to keep the same level of intensity, the same mindset, the same focus in the next game." - Joe Mazzulla after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Tuesday, game 4 of this series.

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PG Marcus Smart

SG Derrick White

SF Jaylen Brown

PF Jayson Tatum

C Robert Williams III

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: J. Tatum (30.1)

APG: M. Smart (6.3)

Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.8)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (1st season)