Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/19/2023

by Rod Pearson

Thursday, May 18, 2023
Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Friday, May 19, 2023
Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA
Where to Watch:  TNT


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +9, Celtics -9; Over/Under:  215.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +9, Celtics -9; Over/Under:  215.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +8.5, Celtics -8.5; Over/Under:  215.5 points

Season Record

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)
Boston Celtics:  57-25 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Recent Form
Miami Heat:  8-2 last 10
Boston Celtics:  5-5 last 10


Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Preview and Analysis


The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 35 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 20 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 54.1% from the field, 51.6% from 3-point range, and 78.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 40-53-3 this season and their O/U record is 50-46.



The Celtics finished the regular season with a 57-25 record overall and they were 32-9 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Miami Heat in their last game. Jayson Tatum led the team in points in that game with 30 while Jaylen Brown was next on the team with 22 points. Marcus Smart led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Jaylen Brown led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 51.9% from the field, 34.5% from 3-point range, and 75.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.4 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 54-42 this season and their O/U record is 51-43-2.


Heat vs Celtics Prediction

The current betting odds have the Celtics listed as a 9 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 2 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for the Eastern Conference finals of the NBA playoffs. The Heat are entering this game with a 1-0 series lead after pulling off a big road upset in game 1 like they have been doing a lot lately. The Heat already kicked out the number 1 seed in the NBA in 5 games in the 1st round and beat out the Knicks in 6 games in their last series. Now they have the 1-0 advantage in this series after a big road win once again but expect the Celtics to give a big push back here like they did in their last series against the 76ers. The Celtics haven't been down 2 games in a series in these playoffs yet and they are going to throw everything they have at the Heat here to ensure they even it up going to Miami for game 3 and 4. The Heat have been playing really well in these playoffs and their defensive play has also been great, but they won game 1 with their offense and they aren't going to be able to sustain that type of play as the Celtics have a much stronger offense and will bounce back with a much better performance on their home court here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Celtics to cover the spread in this game and even up the series 1-1.

Heat Celtics Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, May 19, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Celtics 123 Heat 110.
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NBA Betting Trends


Miami Heat: 12-27 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 8-18 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. 7-2 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 6-1 OVER when leading in a playoff series.

Boston Celtics: 24-13 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. 32-15 ATS after playing a home game. 10-4 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5. 28-19 OVER as a home favorite.

Key Injuries


Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

Boston Celtics:  D. Gallinari (SF) out for season - Knee.


Notable Quotes


“One of the premier two-way basketball players of this association. ... That’s what we needed. Down the stretch Jimmy was able to do everything we needed – as a scorer and as a facilitator.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Celtics in their game on Wednesday, game 1 of this series.


“I don’t know why. You’ve still got to play the game, you’ve got to make plays, regardless of whether you’re home or away.” - Jayson Tatum after their loss against the Heat in their game on Wednesday, game 1 of this series.


Starting Lineups


Miami Heat
PG Gabe Vincent
SG Max Strus
SF Jimmy Butler
PF Kevin Love
C Bam Adebayo

Boston Celtics
PG Marcus Smart
SG Derrick White
SF Jaylen Brown
PF Jayson Tatum
C Robert Williams III

Statistical Leaders


Miami Heat
PPG: J. Butler (22.9)
APG: J. Butler (5.3)
Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Boston Celtics
PPG: J. Tatum (30.1)
APG: M. Smart (6.3)
Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.8)

Coaches:
Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)
Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (1st season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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