Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/21/2024

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, April 24, 2024

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA 

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +13.5, Celtics -13.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +13.5, Celtics -13.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +13.5, Celtics -13.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Miami Heat:  46-36 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

Boston Celtics:  64-18 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Miami Heat:  7-3 last 10

Boston Celtics:  7-3 last 10

The Heat are entering this game with a 46-36 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 24-17 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Chicago Bulls in their last game. Tyler Herro led the team in points in that game with 24 while Jaime Jaquez Jr. was next on the team with 21 points. Tyler Herro led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Tyler Herro led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 46.3% from the field, 42.4% from 3-point range, and 91.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 108.4 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 42-40-2 this season and their O/U record is 36-48.

The Celtics are entering this game with a 64-18 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 37-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Wizards in their last game. Payton Pritchard led the team in points in that game with 38 while Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk was next on the team with 26 points. Payton Pritchard led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Payton Pritchard and Neemias Queta each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 57.3% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.2 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 41-36-5 this season and their O/U record is 43-39.

The current betting odds have the Celtics listed as a 13.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for Round 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics have looked great in their games this season with their 64-18 record overall which landed them the number 1 seed in the East with the best record in the entire NBA, the only team to win over 60 games too. They have looked great on their home court with their 37-4 home record, the best home record in the entire NBA. Meanwhile, the Heat have looked good in their games this season with their 46-36 record overall, but that record only got them into the play-in games. They had a chance to win the 7th seed in the East but they lost their 1st game to the 76ers. They also lost a key player in that game as Jimmy Butler is now out for a few weeks. They managed to win their last game over the Bulls to earn this 8th seed, but now they have the strongest team in the NBA waiting for them in Round 1 and without Butler in the lineup, the Heat don't have much of a chance in this 1st game. The Celtics are going to be looking to take out some frustrations from last year's playoffs too so they won't go easy on this weakened Heat team. The best way to place a bet here is on the Celtics to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Celtics Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 24, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Celtics 116 Heat 91.

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Miami Heat: 23-15 ATS in road games. 30-15 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent. 6-2 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more. 6-3 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5. 17-8 OVER revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 

Boston Celtics: 4-8 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games. 3-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 21-11 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points. 12-5 OVER against Southeast division opponents. 9-5 OVER off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

Miami Heat:  J. Butler (PF) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Rozier (PG) Out indefinitely - Neck. J. Richardson (SG) out for season - Shoulder.

Boston Celtics:  D. White (PG) Ques Sun - Ankle. J. Holiday (PG) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Brown (SG) Ques Sun - Hand. J. Tatum (SF) Ques Sun - Knee. A. Horford (C) Ques Sun - Toe.

“I have an appreciation for the things you can’t buy, the things that you have to earn. We had to earn this. You can’t influence it. You can't pay money for it. You actually have to collectively come together to earn it — and we had to do it the hard way, just to get this first ticket punched for the invitation to this dance.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Bulls in their game on Friday in the NBA play-in tournament for the playoffs in the East.

“The most important thing getting into a situation is having no expectations. If you study teams that have even been fortunate enough, and if we're fortunate enough to get to a Finals, if not win it, the road there is always forgotten by the result of winning.” - Joe Mazzulla after his team’s win against the Wizards in their last game of the regular season on Sunday.

PG Tyler Herro

SG Duncan Robinson

SF Jaime Jaquez Jr.

PF Nikola Jovic

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jrue Holiday

SG Derrick White

SF Jaylen Brown

PF Jayson Tatum

C Kristaps Porzingis

PPG: J. Butler (20.8)

APG: T. Rozier (5.6)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10.4)

PPG: J. Tatum (26.9)

APG: D. White (5.2)

Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.1)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (16th season)

Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (2nd season)