Game Time: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, April 24th, 2022 

Venue:   State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Spread: Heat -1.5; O/U 221

Fanduel:  Spread:  Heat -1.5; O/U 221

BetMGM:  Spread: Heat -2.5; O/U 221.5

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 2-1 Playoffs

Hawks: 43-39, 8th place Eastern Conference; 1-2 Playoffs

An NBA Eastern Conference First round matchup that has suddenly come alive.  The Miami Heat finished this season as the #1 team in the East.. They were treated like paper Champs however.  The Heat do not have a full-time dominant scorer.  The Heat get by on defense and teamwork… concepts that are so outdated in the NBA that TV talking heads openly laugh at them. The Hawks on the other hand definitely DO have a full-time dominant scorer… and they couldn’t play defense to save their mother’s life.  There is a definite contrast of styles in this series.  The Heat bring defense and teamwork while the Hawks can and MUST outscore you to beat you.  The Heat took the first two games at home and covered the spread… then when the series moved to Atlanta for Hawks home games the Hawks got the first one of those and by nature simply covered the spread through winning.  To bet the series the Heat are still MEGA favorites… but in this home game for the Hawks, with the Heat favored by 1.5 - 2.5 points… who should the winner be?  Where should we put our money?... I know already… Let’s back it up with numbers.

The Miami Heat are 2-1 on the series and 2-1 ATS.  If you bet on the Heat 3 times you are winning 66% of the time.. Minus the vig… and you are up a little bit of money.  The Hawks stole your lunch last time, but then you (and I) should have given them more credit for a home game. In the Heat loss SF Jimmy Butler bounced his hip off the hardwood and was down with pain for a few minutes.  Butler stayed in the game… but if he has lingering effects through the series the Heat may be in trouble. SG Max Strus had 20 points and SG Tyler Herro had 24 points in the loss… 44 points from one position is a good thing… when both those guys are soft on defense it could be self defeating.  Max Strus is a guy you may not know… he went undrafted out of DePaul 3 seasons ago and has grinded to make the Heat and stick with the team.  Erik Spoelstra likes him… but each Max Stus minute means one less Duncan Robinson minute… Duncan BTW also went undrafted, but 5 seasons ago.  Since then Duncan has gotten a big $$ contract from the Heat and the Heat seem to be shrinking away from the one-way player, shooter.  The Heat need to resolve this right away!  They either need Duncan’s shooting in every game (with Herro’s).. Or they need none of it.  The Heat are still favored in the series… but this is not a good position to be in.

The Atlanta Hawks are 1-2 in the series and 1-2 ATS.  Simply put, the Hawks snuck up on the Heat and stole the first home game they could get their hands on.  Let’s not be confused by this… the final score was Hawks 111 - Heat 110.  It was razor thin.  PG Trae Young got the team high mark of 24 points while SF DeAndre Hunter threw in 17 with some amazing defense (I bet  LeBron is happy that he is not on a team with Brandon Ingram, Deandre Hunter, and Julius Randle at the moment… a team like that would contend every year) .  SG Bogdon Bogdanovic came through as he had not in the entire series and dropped 18 points on 4 of 9 3-point shooting. A decision has to be made with the Atlanta brain trust as to why exactly SG Kevin Huerter gets more minutes than SG Bogdon Bogdonovic… when Huerter is so clearly not contributing on either end.

Jack Banks is 6-1 in the last 7 days in NBA action!  Oskeim Sports is 6-1 in the last 7 days in NBA action!   Get Jack Banks’ picks and Oskeim Sports’ picks right now!  Make winning your part-time job! Stay with us all throughout the NBA Playoffs and let’s grow that bankroll! You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

The Heat are 55-30 on the season, but 48-36-1 ATS.  They have logged 49 Overs and 36 Unders.  They are 24-18 in road games.

The Hawks are 46-41 on the season, but 38-47 ATS.  They have notched 43 Overs, 42 Unders.  They are 29-14 in home games.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43,7 per game, and 19th in AST/To ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.

The Hawks are 6th in scoring with 113.9 ppg, 20th in rebounds with 44 per game, and 4th in AST/To ratio with 2.1. On defense they rank 21st while allowing 112.4 ppg from opponents.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, April 24th is….. Heat 118 - Hawks 114

The Heat will win Game 4 and go back to Miami with a close out opportunity.  The Hawks stole Game 3 because the Hawks are so good at home. The Hawks shooters rely on that home crowd cheer to give them pep in their step… to give them swagger… but now the Heat have felt it and will clamp down.  The Heat didn’t carry an amazing defense all the way to Atlanta to lose two games.  

Don't miss our champion handicappers' Free NBA Picks and Premium Selections every day here at Bigal.com. Just click on Shop Picks for our Best Bets, or click on Shop Subscriptions to join for a week or a month.  And if you enjoyed this Heat/Hawks review, be sure to bookmark Bigal.com for our daily Game Previews and Predictions.  Get help with all your college football picks, National Football league, NCAA brackets, or any prop bets on your season schedule. 

Miami is 64-42 ATS versus Atlanta since 1996.

Atlanta is 3-2 ATS versus Miami at Atlanta the last 3 seasons.

4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER the last 3 seasons.

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry (leg) Quest **

Hawks: C Clint Capela (knee) Out ** SG Lou Williams (back) Quest

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus

Hawks: C John Collins, SF Deandre Hunter, PF Danilo Gallinari, SG Kevin Huerter, PG Trae Young

Heat: Erik Spoelstra

Hawks: Nate McMillan