Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/03/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 3, 2023

Venue:  FedEx Field, North Englewood, MD

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Dolphins -9.5, Commanders +9.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Dolphins -9.5, Commanders +9.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Dolphins -9.5, Commanders +9.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Miami Dolphins:  8-3 (1st place, AFC East)

Washington Commanders:  4-8 (4th place, NFC East)

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Miami Dolphins:  won their last game on the road against the New York Jets 34-13.

Washington Commanders:  lost their last game on the road against the Dallas Cowboys 45-10.

The Dolphins are entering this game with an 8-3 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 34-13. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 21/30 passes for 243 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Raheem Mostert led the team in rushing yards with 94 and 2 TDs. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 114 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Jerome Baker led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Christian Wilkins led the defense in sacks with 2. Jerome Baker and Jevon Holland each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

The Commanders are entering this game with a 4-8 record overall and they have a 0-5 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-4 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 45-10. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 28/44 passes for 300 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 53. Curtis Samuel led the receivers with 100 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Cody Barton led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have the Dolphins listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins have looked really good this season with their 8-3 record overall which has them leading the AFC East right now. They haven't been as good in their road games this year but they are still 3-2 in road games and will have a lot of momentum from their 21 point win in New York over the Jets on Black Friday. The Commanders are only 4-8 overall this season and they have looked terrible in their games lately with 2 losses in a row by double digits, and one of those was against the Giants. They have also been worse in their home games this season with their 1-4 home record and they have absolutely no momentum after a crushing 45-10 loss against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Thursday. The Commanders are in a spiral right now with some big changes coming to the franchise this off-season while the Dolphins have been surging lately, trying to win the AFC East this year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dolphins to cover the spread in this game. 

Dolphins Commanders Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 3, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Dolphins 31 Commanders 13.

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Miami Dolphins: 10-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 7-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 33-20 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 14-5 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs. 24-11 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points.

Washington Commanders: 7-13 ATS in home games. 10-22 ATS against AFC East division opponents. 5-10 ATS after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 10-3 UNDER as a home underdog. 8-2 UNDER after a loss by 14 or more points. 8-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses.

Miami Dolphins:  J. Phillips (LB) out for season - Achilles. J. Holland (S) day-to-day - Knee. T. Armstead (OT) day-to-day - Quadricep. R. Jones (OL) day-to-day - Knee. D. Achane (RB) day-to-day - Knee. S. Ahmed (RB) Out indefinitely - Foot. C. Claypool (WR) Out indefinitely - Knee. I. Wynn (OL) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. C. Brooks (RB) I-R - Ankle. E. Ezukanma (WR) Out indefinitely - Neck. K. Crossen (DB) I-R - Undisclosed. Z. Vandenburgh (LB) I-R - Undisclosed.

Washington Commanders:  J. Smith-Williams (DE) day-to-day - Hamstring. A. Armah (RB) day-to-day - Hamstring. E. Forbes (CB) day-to-day - Elbow. D. Harris (LB) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Leg. R. Stromberg (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. S. Charles (G) Out indefinitely - Calf. J. Reaves (S) I-R - Knee. D. Forrest (S) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.

“It was a momentum swing going into the half. They threw a ball, they threw a Hail Mary, kind of desperation. They knew we were getting the ball after the half. Then, boom, you just let up a touchdown.” - Jevon Holland on his pick-6 after their win against the Jets in their last game. 

“We just got beat by a lot of points on Thanksgiving. The game was within reach. And we just didn’t make the necessary plays to kind of put the ball in the end zone and do our part. So that’s never a good feeling.” - Terry McLaurin after their loss against the Cowboys in their last game. 

WR Waddle, Jaylen 

WR Hill, Tyreek 

WR Berrios, Braxton 

TE Smythe, Durham 

QB Tagovailoa, Tua 

RB Mostert, Raheem 

FB Ingold, Alec

WR McLaurin, Terry 

WR Dotson, Jahan 

WR Samuel, Curtis 

TE Thomas, Logan 

QB Howell, Sam 

RB Robinson Jr., Brian

FB Armah, Alex

Passing: T. Tagovailoa (3177)

Rushing: R. Mostert (785)

Receiving: T. Hill (1324)

Touchdowns: R. Mostert (15)

Passing: S. Howell (3339)

Rushing: B. Robinson (611)

Receiving: T. McLaurin (694)

Touchdowns: B. Robinson (8)

Coaches:

Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)

Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)