by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Dec 30, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Titans -3.5; O/U 40; Titans -180, Dolphins +155
BetMGM: Titans -3.5; O/U 41; Titans -182, Dolphins +155
Caesars: Titans -3.5; O/U 40; Titans -175, Dolphins +150
Season record
Dolphins: 8-7 (3rd place, AFC East)
Titans: 10-5 (1st place, AFC South)
It was a good seven days for Will Rogers going 5-3-0 after what was an uncertain week of make-or-break games. Two weeks left in the regular season before the fun begins. You should be at the ready at all times. Catch Will’s plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Dolphins - Titans preview and analysis
Last week
Dolphins: won 20-3 at Saints (Monday)
Titans: won 20-17 vs. 49ers (Thursday)
The Miami Dolphins will not go away. They just might with two tough games remaining on the schedule, but right now, Miami is as much in the playoff race as anyone else in the AFC.
But the Dolphins will put their seven-game winning streak on the line Sunday in an important AFC game against the South-leading Tennessee Titans in Nashville.
We'll get this out of the way now, because it will be brought up: The Dolphins' winning streak, as impressive as is in hindsight, has not been overtly impressive. Miami has proven it's better than the bottom-feeder teams, beating the New York Jets twice, the banged-up New Orleans Saints, and the Houston Texans, just to name a few.
But the Dolphins are the first team ever to have a seven-game losing streak and winning streak in the same season by way of their 20-3 win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. Miami is on a short week going into this AFC showdown, but the Dolphins have a confident Tua Tagovailoa throwing the ball.
In his last six appearances, Tagovailoa has completed 74 percent of his passes to go with eight touchdowns and just four interceptions. Tagovailoa went 19 of 26 for 198 yards, one touchdown and a pick. He's looking for his third straight road game of 70% completion and a passer rating better than 90.
"This team stuck together, really the entire year," said Miami coach Brian Flores, who improved to 19-7 in games played after October. "Obviously, we dealt with a lot of adversity early in the year. It revealed a lot — revealed the character of the guys in our locker room.
The Dolphins control their own destiny. They're part of a four-way tie at 8-7 for the final wild-card spot and currently hold tiebreakers over the Baltimore Ravens (win percentage in conference games), the Los Angeles Chargers (win percentage in common games) and the Las Vegas Raiders (via Los Angeles head-to-head tiebreaker). Should they win out, the Dolphins would make the playoffs.
But the Titans are the Dolphins' toughest test in a hot minute. The No. 2 team in the AFC, even without Derrick Henry still on the injured list, the Titans are coming off a crucial 20-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
That win put the Titans one win away from a second straight AFC South title and holding off the surging Indianapolis Colts, who are virtually two games back after losing the season series to Tennessee.
The Titans had only 278 total yards against the vaunted San Francisco defense; Ryan Tannehill accumulated for 209 of them and a touchdown. A.J. Brown had 145 of those yards and that lone touchdown for his best game of the season.
"It was all on us and we just had to make a play," Brown said. "Then we had to make another play. That was the mindset. Just come out here and make plays, so that's what we did."
As coach Mike Vrabel said, the Titans aren't dead yet. But with Henry likely returning before the end of the regular season, that's going to open things up.
The Miami Dolphins will not go away. They just might with two tough games remaining on the schedule, but right now, Miami is as much in the playoff race as anyone else in the AFC.
But the Dolphins will put their seven-game winning streak on the line Sunday in an important AFC game against the South-leading Tennessee Titans in Nashville.
We'll get this out of the way now, because it will be brought up: The Dolphins' winning streak, as impressive as is in hindsight, has not been overtly impressive. Miami has proven it's better than the bottom-feeder teams, beating the New York Jets twice, the banged-up New Orleans Saints, and the Houston Texans, just to name a few.
But the Dolphins are the first team ever to have a seven-game losing streak and winning streak in the same season by way of their 20-3 win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. Miami is on a short week going into this AFC showdown, but the Dolphins have a confident Tua Tagovailoa throwing the ball.
In his last six appearances, Tagovailoa has completed 74 percent of his passes to go with eight touchdowns and just four interceptions. Tagovailoa went 19 of 26 for 198 yards, one touchdown and a pick. He's looking for his third straight road game of 70% completion and a passer rating better than 90.
"This team stuck together, really the entire year," said Miami coach Brian Flores, who improved to 19-7 in games played after October. "Obviously, we dealt with a lot of adversity early in the year. It revealed a lot — revealed the character of the guys in our locker room.
The Dolphins control their own destiny. They're part of a four-way tie at 8-7 for the final wild-card spot and currently hold tiebreakers over the Baltimore Ravens (win percentage in conference games), the Los Angeles Chargers (win percentage in common games) and the Las Vegas Raiders (via Los Angeles head-to-head tiebreaker). Should they win out, the Dolphins would make the playoffs.
But the Titans are the Dolphins' toughest test in a hot minute. The No. 2 team in the AFC, even without Derrick Henry still on the injured list, the Titans are coming off a crucial 20-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
That win put the Titans one win away from a second straight AFC South title and holding off the surging Indianapolis Colts, who are virtually two games back after losing the season series to Tennessee.
The Titans had only 278 total yards against the vaunted San Francisco defense; Ryan Tannehill accumulated for 209 of them and a touchdown. A.J. Brown had 145 of those yards and that lone touchdown for his best game of the season.
"It was all on us and we just had to make a play," Brown said. "Then we had to make another play. That was the mindset. Just come out here and make plays, so that's what we did."
As coach Mike Vrabel said, the Titans aren't dead yet. But with Henry likely returning before the end of the regular season, that's going to open things up.
Prediction
The Titans have the edge in almost every category, and it's understandable. But the underdog has covered in four straight meetings and the Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in the last seven. If this comes down to a defensive game, I think I trust the Miami defense more than Tennessee on the road. Dolphins by 3
Betting trends
The Dolphins are 14-29 ATS since 1992 after playing on Monday Night Football.
The Dolphins are 24-11 ATS following the first month of the season over the past three years.
The Titans are 19-18 ATS against conference opponents over the past three seasons.
Players to watch
Dolphins: Rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle had 10 receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown last week, his third game with at least 10 receptions. It's the second-most ever by a rookie.
Titans: Running back D'onta Foreman has a rushing touchdown in two of his last three games and is looking for his third straight home game with a touchdown.
Statistical leaders
Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 2,339 yards, 15 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 590 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 941 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Emmanuel Ogbah -- 9 sacks
Titans:
Passing: Ryan Tannehill -- 3,327 yards, 15 TD, 14 INT
Rushing: Derrick Henry -- 937 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: A.J. Brown -- 780 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Harold Landry -- 11 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
