Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds -- 11/21/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Dolphins -3
BetMGM: Dolphins -3 
Caesars: Dolphins -3

Season record
Dolphins: 3-7 (3rd place, AFC East)
Jets: 2-7 (Last place, AFC East)

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Dolphins - Jets preview and analysis

Last week
Dolphins: won 22-10 vs. Ravens (Thursday)
Jets: lost 45-17 vs. Bills

In this week’s battle of the AFC East Toilet Bowl, we have the returning Joe Flacco facing the unknown of whoever is the quarterback for the Miami Dolphins.

There’s never a dull moment in the NFL, but the New York Jets trying to not be a dumpster fire forever is really a gift each week.

The Jets and Dolphins will meet for the first time this season on Sunday in a battle between the two worst teams in the AFC East in which offense will be at a premium in this matchup. There has to be a favorite somehow between the two and the books have chosen the Dolphins to be the undisputed champions of not being horrible this week.

For a game that has a total of 45 at most books, this has the makings of one giant tire fire.

The Jets, who are starting the former Super Bowl MVP this week over young quarterback Mike White (as Zach Wilson continues to rehab from injury), are coming off a thrashing at the hand of the Buffalo Bills last week by 28 points.

White, who led the Jets to a shocking win over the Cincinnati Bengals a couple of weeks prior, threw for 251 yards and four interceptions in the Jets’ home loss. As punishment for not being a good quarterback on a horrendous team, coach Robert Saleh is seriously punting this season away for the Jets by starting Flacco instead of giving the younger quarterback a chance.

What’s Sam Darnold up to these days?

"Every man should be embarrassed," defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins said. "Every man should be angry."

Every man, woman and child who are Jets fans have been embarrassed for a very long time, Sheldon. Especially the Jets defense. This is nothing new.

Sports law tells us that we can’t take out certain games to discuss an overlying problem, but in this case we will do so. Take out that Bengals win on Halloween. The Jets’ last three losses have seen them allow 54, 45 and 45 points respectively. Saleh, a defensive-minded coach, has quickly learned that his group is not the San Francisco 49ers; the Jets have given up 433.2 yards per game, including 299.3 through the air.

That sounds heavenly for the Dolphins as they try to push their winning streak to three after consecutive home wins against the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami got a well-earned break after that upset win over Baltimore that saw the Dolphins defense hold Lamar Jackson to 277 total yards.

Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t expected to play at all due to his left finger injury, but the future of the franchise was pressed into duty in the second half when Jacoby Brissett left with a right knee injury. Tagovailoa threw for 158 yards on 8 of 13 passing, including a 64-yard bomb to Albert Wilson for the Dolphins’ longest play of the season and the longest pass of Tagovailoa’s career.

"Any win is good," Tagovailoa said. "No rumors, no external factors of noise had anything to do with what we did tonight."

Miami fell flat in its eight-point victory over the Houston Texans but the defense -- the calling card of coach Brian Flores -- came to play the last two weeks, primarily against Jackson. Xavien Howard had a 49-yard fumble returned for a touchdown, and Justin Coleman picked off Jackson.

The Dolphins have been bitten by the bad luck bug as of late, but things may be turning around after the way their defense has responded, as well as a healthy Tagovailoa.


It hasn’t happened a lot this season, but the Jets are 6-5 when they’re home dogs of seven points or less over the past three seasons. The problem is the Jets are 2-13 in their last 15 division games, so the odds are not on their side. I trust the Miami defense to get things done and win behind the arm of Tua. Dolphins by 14

Betting trends

The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS following consecutive unders.

The Dolphins are 13-7 ATS over the past three seasons following a home game.

The Jets are 9-25 straight up in their last 34 as a home dog.

Players to watch

Dolphins: Rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle had four receptions for 61 yards last week against the Ravens. He has at least 60 yards in four of his last five games and five straight games of at least four receptions.

Jets: Corey Davis has slowly become the undisputed No. 1 receiver in New York. He had five receptions for 93 yards last week.

Statistical leaders

Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 1,198 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 344 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 557 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Emmanuel Ogbah -- 5 sacks

Passing: Mike White -- 953 yards, 5 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Michael Carter -- 367 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Corey Davis -- 442 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Quinnen Williams -- 5 sacks

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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