Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/9/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Thursday, Oct 06, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Dolphins -3
FanDuel: Dolphins -3
BetMGM: Dolphins -3
Caesars: Dolphins -3.5

Season record
Dolphins: 3-1
Jets: 2-2

Week 5 of the NFL season is here and there's already so much intrigue around the league. Division races are surprisingly tight in some parts, some teams still have a chance to better their season, and some teams are surprising everyone with their level of play. Cooper Rush for MVP, anybody? But in the betting world, it was a strong week for Tom Stryker going 5-0-1 (+$5,000 net). As we progress through the one-quarter mark in the NFL season, it's a subtle reminder that anything can happen on any given time. If you're wanting to cash in big, make sure to follow our champion handicappers all season long on our Best Bets page at bigal.com.

Dolphins - Jets preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Dolphins: lost 27-15 at Bengals
Jets: won 24-20 at Steelers

It’s a shame that we are four weeks into this hot start for the Miami Dolphins and the one thing we are talking about more is how ridiculous they’ve handled the situation with their franchise quarterback. Thankfully for all involved, Tua Tagovailoa is doing fine after seemingly going through the most terrifying concussion dealings we’ve ever seen.

Tagovailoa will not play Sunday against the New York Jets, but that should be fine with the fact that Teddy Bridgewater will come in and be a very reasonable stopgap to help push the Dolphins to 4-1. And let’s be honest: Any time you’re playing the Jets, that’s a perfect time to roll with the backup quarterback if need be.

But the Dolphins are likely fuming as is with the fact they’re coming off their first loss of the season last Thursday to the Cincinnati Bengals, losing 27-15 to the defending AFC champions where they couldn’t recover quickly enough after Tagovailoa left the game in a scary sight with that concussion. Bridgewater came in for relief and did very well, throwing for 193 yards and a touchdown, and Tyreek Hill had his best game as a Dolphin with 10 receptions for 160 yards. The Dolphins just couldn’t do anything once they took a 15-14 lead late in the third quarter. Miami turned it over twice and loss the time of possession battle by about 3 minutes.

"You're going to lose games to very good teams if you lose the turnover battle and you're kicking field goals instead of trying for touchdowns," Miami coach Mike McDaniel said. "We had been executing. We didn't today. You don't get free passes against good teams."

A lot of talk will be on how McDaniel and his staff have handled Tagovailoa’s situation over the last couple of weeks, from leaving the game against the Bills slightly to now. It’s disheartening that this has happened to a young quarterback, and a human being, but it’s also sad on another level in the fact that Tua had finally gotten it going before this happening to him.

"Very scary moment," McDaniel said. "He was evaluated for a concussion. He's in the concussion protocol, but he's being discharged. It's an emotional moment. It's not a part of the deal you sign up for."

Well, the good news is Bridgewater is still good enough to get the Dolphins some wins. Bridgewater has a 111.4 quarterback rating in his last two meetings against the Dolphins, and has a 70% completion rating in three of his last four against AFC East teams. But no one at the same time, no matter the opponent, can stop Hill. He’s the only player with multiple games of 150 yards this season and his 477 yards this season are a league high. Whether he has Tua or Patrick Mahomes, he knows how to deliver..

The Jets, meanwhile, are just trying to do something of relevancy and are having a fun time doing it. The Jets are coming off a 24-20 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road last week in what was Zach Wilson’s debut. Wilson was a pedestrian 18 of 26 and threw for 252 yards and two interceptions, but did throw a touchdown and *checks notes* catch a touchdown, as well. Corey Davis caught five passes for 74 yards and a score, and rookie running back Breece Hall ran for 66 yards and the game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds remaining. And yes, the Jets are 2-2.

"It felt like that was the first time as an offense we didn't feel stagnant, we didn't feel timid," Wilson said. "Everyone was playing fast. Everyone was right on cue with what the calls were. It's so much fun playing like this."

The fact that the Jets are even in this is truly remarkable. And if this is the time that Hall gets going with Wilson leading the way, that’s going to be great for this team. Hall is looking for his third straight game of at least 75 yards from scrimmage and is the only rookie with at least 60 through the first four weeks. There’s a reason why that kid ran for all those touchdowns at Iowa State.

Prediction


The Dolphins are more proven at this rate than the Jets. While that win against the Steelers was great for the Robert Saleh regime, they need to rack up more wins before we take them seriously compared to the Dolphins and Bills. Dolphins by 10

Betting trends


Dolphins are 9-8 ATS in their last 17 road games.

Dolphins are 9-0 off two straight unders in the last three seasons.

Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when winning two of their last three.

Jets are 2-9 ATS as a home dog of 7 or less in the last three years.

Jets are 4-13 ATS off an over in the last three seasons.

Statistical leaders


Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 1,035 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Raheem Mostert -- 147 yards
Receiving: Tyreek Hill -- 477 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Melvin Ingram -- 2 sacks

Jets:
Passing: Zach Wilson -- 252 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Breece Hall -- 178 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Corey Davis -- 261 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Quinnen Williams -- 2.5 sacks

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Dolphins - New York Jets prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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