Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 1/1/2023

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Dec 30, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Patriots -3; Patriots -150, Dolphins +130; O/U 41
FanDuel: Patriots -2.5; Patriots -148, Dolphins +126; O/U 41.5
BetMGM: Patriots -2.5; Patriots -160, Dolphins +135; O/U 41
Caesars: Patriots -2.5; Patriots -161, Dolphins +135; O/U 41

Season record
Dolphins: 8-7 (2nd place, AFC East)
Patriots: 7-8 (3rd place, AFC East)

We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!

Dolphins - Patriots preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Dolphins: lost 26-20 vs. Packers
Patriots: lost 22-18 vs. Bengals

Dolphins analysis
 
The Miami Dolphins are in major trouble. Not even just for the remainder of the season. Considering the implications of what could be regarding Tua Tagovailoa and his concussions, this could have more problems in the future than it does at the current moment. But in the case of the dolphins, things have gone haywire since starting 8-3. Four straight losses, the latest a 26-20 defeat at the hands of the Green Bay Packers, and suddenly the dolphins are staring in the outside looking at of a playoff spot. And if their opponent just happens to beat them on Sunday, suddenly New England and Miami are fighting for that last playoff spot.
 
The Dolphins have failed to cover in three of the last four with the only cover coming December 17th in Buffalo in which the Bills won 32-29. but last week's game was not any better for Miami. Tua Through for 310 yards and a touchdown but was picked off three times, an uncharacteristic showing from someone who was considered an MVP frontrunner earlier in the season. Jaylin Waddle Caught five passes for 143 yards and a touchdown, and Tyreek Hill also added 103 yards receiving.
 
I just don't know what to make of Miami right now other than the fact that they are still very much in the playoff picture. I'm not entirely sure where they are if they go to Teddy Bridgewater, nor am I sure what they were able to do if they have to change up their offense drastically, go away from the running game, and let things fall where they may.
 
Patriots analysis
 
The New England Patriots suddenly find themselves at the forefront of getting back into the playoff picture. Suddenly, they’re not out of it. Although Miami can clinch with a win and a Jets loss, the Patriots could seemingly put forth a three-way tie for second place in the AFC East and make things a hell of a lot more intriguing. This is how crazy the situation has gotten, even with the Patriots losing four of their last five outright and against the spread. Though New England has played well against the Raiders and Bengals, it hasn’t been the greatest run of form.
 
The Patriots got a good outing from Mac Jones last week, going for 240 yards and two touchdowns without turning the ball over. The problem was no help from the running game. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England’s promising running back, was held to just 30 yards on 13 carries. Part of that was the Patriots trying to play catch-up from the Bengals jumping out to a three-score lead and playing comeback, but they’ve got to do much better in that kind of situational play in order to have a chance against Miami.
 
The Patriots are a pedestrian 7-7-1 against the spread this season, about on par with where their record is straight up. Neither one of these teams, honestly, have been a good option on the books all year long. Something’s got to give in this scenario.
 
Prediction
 
In a battle of which quarterback needs to pick up the slack, I trust the Dolphins’ veteran over Jones. New England still has a lot to figure out with Jones and what to do with him. Miami, meanwhile, can still jump into the playoffs without Tua. That’s the crazy thing. Dolphins 21, Patriots 17

Betting trends

Dolphins are 21-38 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Patriots are 19-7 ATS at home revenging a loss against an opponent since 1992.

Patriots are 26-7 ATS after being outgained by 150 yards or more in the last game since 1992.

Statistical leaders

Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa – 3,548 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Raheem Mostert – 791 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Tyreek Hill – 1,632 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Bradley Chubb – 8 sacks

Patriots:
Passing: Mac Jones – 2,550 yards, 9 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson – 944 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers – 723 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Matt Judon – 15.5 sacks

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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