Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/17/2023

Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Sunday, September 17, 2023

Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Where to Watch:  NBC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Dolphins -2.5, Patriots +2.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Dolphins -2.5, Patriots +2.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Dolphins -2.5, Patriots +2.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Miami Dolphins:  1-0 (2nd place, AFC East)

New England Patriots:  0-1 (3rd place, AFC East)

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Miami Dolphins:  won their last game on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers 36-34.

New England Patriots:  lost their last game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles 25-20.

The Dolphins are entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the LA Chargers 36-34. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 28/45 passes for 466 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Raheem Mostert led the team in rushing yards with 37 and 1 TD. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 215 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 2 TDs. Jevon Holland led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Kader Kohou and Zach Sieler each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game.

 

 

 

The Patriots are entering this game with a 0-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 25-20. Jalen Hurts was the starting QB and he completed 22/33 passes for 170 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Kenneth Gainwell led the team in rushing yards with 54. A. J. Brown led the receivers with 79 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Reed Blankenship led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Jalen Carter led the defense in sacks with 1. Darius Slay came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have the Dolphins listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins looked really good in their season opener as they traveled to California and beat the Chargers on the road. The Dolphins have a lot of talent on offense and defense but their offense is also riddled with skilled players that the Patriots don't have at all. The Patriots already lost their season opener at home to the Eagles and even though they were playing a lot better near the end of that game, that score was closer than it should have been as the Eagles started to let that game go. The Dolphins have a very good record against the Patriots since Tua has taken over the QB position though and they have a lot more talent on their offense to put up points in this game. The Patriots defense won't be able to handle this Dolphins offense and the Patriots offense doesn't have the weapons to keep up with the Dolphins in this game either. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dolphins to cover the spread in this game. 

Dolphins Patriots Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 17, 2023 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Dolphins 38 Patriots 17.

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Miami Dolphins: 9-4 ATS versus division opponents. 11-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins. 8-4 OVER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 6-3 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 

New England Patriots: 5-11 ATS as an underdog. 1-5 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 12-5 OVER as a home underdog of 3 points or less. 5-2 OVER after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game.

Miami Dolphins:  T. Armstead (T) Ques Sun - Leg. D. Achane (RB) Ques Sun - Shoulder. J. Hill (TE) Ques Sun - Ankle. R. Jones (OL) Early Oct - Knee. J. Wilson Jr. (RB) Out indefinitely - Abdominal. J. Ramsey (CB) Mid Dec - Knee. N. Needham (CB) Out indefinitely - Achilles. K. Crossen (DB) I-R - Undisclosed. E. Campbell (DB) Out indefinitely - Knee. Z. Vandenburgh (LB) I-R - Undisclosed.

New England Patriots:  D. Parker (WR) Ques Sun - Knee. C. Strange (OL) Ques Sun - Knee. M. Onwenu (OL) Ques Sun - Ankle. M. Corral (QB) Ques Sun - Personal. J. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. R. Reiff (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Thornton (WR) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Flowers (DE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. C. Davis (DB) Out indefinitely - Knee. I. Bolden (CB) I-R - Neck. R. McMillan (LB) I-R - Achilles.

“It was validating for me, because I don’t feel crazy. That’s kind of what I expected to happen.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s win against the Chargers in their last game. 

“I feel like in the most critical times I played my worst. ... I know I can do it. I’ve done it before. I let the defense down and I’ll have to live with that.” - Mac Jones after their loss against the Eagles in their last game. 

WR Waddle, Jaylen 

WR Hill, Tyreek 

WR Berrios, Braxton 

TE Smythe, Durham 

QB Tagovailoa, Tua 

RB MOSTERT, RAHEEM 

FB Ingold, Alec 

WR PARKER, DEVANTE 

WR Bourne, Kendrick 

WR Smith-Schuster, JuJu 

TE Henry, Hunter 

QB Jones, Mac 

RB Stevenson, Rhamondre 

Passing: T. Tagovailoa (466)

Rushing: R. Mostert (37)

Receiving: T. Hill (215)

Touchdowns: T. Hill (2)

Passing: M. Jones (316)

Rushing: E. Elliott (29)

Receiving: K. Bourne (64)

Touchdowns: K. Bourne (2)

Coaches:

Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)

New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season)