by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Dec 31, 2025
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, January 4, 2026
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins +10.5, Patriots -10.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins +10.5, Patriots -10.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins +10.5, Patriots -10.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (3rd place, AFC East)
New England Patriots: 13-3 (1st place, AFC East)
Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Nelly’s Sports is on a HOT STREAK in the NFL on a 15-5-1 NFL RUN for +$9,430 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.
Recent Form
Miami Dolphins: won their last game at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17.
New England Patriots: won their last game on the road against the New York Jets 42-10.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 7-9 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17. Quinn Ewers was the starting QB and he completed 14/22 passes for 172 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 83. Theo Wease Jr. led the receivers with 63 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. Jack Jones led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Bradley Chubb led the defense in sacks with 2. Ashtyn Davis and Jason Marshall Jr. each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 13-3 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 8-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 42-10. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 19/21 passes for 256 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 82. Stefon Diggs led the receivers with 101 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Dell Pettus and Jahlani Tavai each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Dell Pettus led the defense in sacks with 1. Jaylinn Hawkins came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 10.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 13-3 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They have looked good on their home field too with their 5-3 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 7-9 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East. They haven't been a good road team either with their 3-5 road record this year. The Dolphins are off a 20-17 win over the Buccaneers which was a huge spoiler game for them, and Ewers looked good taking over at the QB position. The Dolphins have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the last few weeks, but they finally cooled off with some losses that eliminated them from playoff contention and now they have nothing to play for here. The Patriots still have everything to play for though, already winning the AFC East, and now they have a chance to take the number 1 seed in the AFC. They are off a 42-10 win over the Jets in their last one and they have been rolling over teams like that all year. The Dolphins have struggled a lot in colder weather this season, and they just haven't looked nearly as good in any of their road games this year. The Patriots are looking to win the number 1 seed in the AFC still so look for them to keep their foot on the gas and go into the playoffs with some momentum. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Dolphins Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 4, 2026 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Patriots 38 Dolphins 20.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Dolphins New England Patriots prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NFL predictions and previews.
NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 11-6 ATS versus division opponents. 4-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 9-5 ATS in games played on turf. 5-1 UNDER after a 2 game home stand. 6-3 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game.
New England Patriots: 7-14 ATS in home games. 5-9 ATS after playing a division game. 2-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. 5-1 UNDER off a win against a division rival.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: None.
New England Patriots: None.
Notable Quotes
“I think consistency and realistically (Ewers) has an idea of how Greg is going to react to certain looks based on that rapport. It's just a credit to leaning into that trust or recognizing that Quinn can trust Greg and Greg keeps coming through for him.” - Mike McDaniel on Quinn Ewers after his team’s win against the Buccaneers in their last game.
“Winning the division, we’ve got to win out to win the division. That was our mindset. If that means the No. 1 seed is at play, that’s what we’re trying to do.” - Drake Maye after their win against the Jets in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Wilson Jr., Cedrick
WR Washington, Malik
TE Waller, Darren
QB Ewers, Quinn
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
New England Patriots
WR Williams, Kyle
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
FB Westover, Jack
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (2,660)
Rushing: De'Von Achane (1,350)
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle (910)
Touchdowns: De'Von Achane (12)
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (4,203)
Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (858)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (970)
Touchdowns: TreVeyon Henderson (8)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
