Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/12/2021

by Big Al Staff

Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, September 12, 2021
Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch:  CBS


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Dolphins +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under:  43.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Dolphins +2.5, Patriots -2.5; Over/Under:  43.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Dolphins +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under:  43 points

Season Record

Miami Dolphins:  0-0 (AFC East)
New England Patriots:  0-0 (AFC East)
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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Miami Dolphins:  First Game of the Season
New England Patriots:  First Game of the Season


Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction

The Miami Dolphins will be taking on the New England Patriots for their first game of the NFL regular season. The Dolphins had a very positive year last season finishing in 2nd place of the AFC East with a 10-6 record overall. For a team that was expected to have a losing season, they sure did surprise a lot of people with their success and they will be looking to carry that into this season as well. The Patriots did not have a good season as they finished in 3rd place of the AFC East with a losing 7-9 record. After losing Tom Brady they are still looking for that replacement but may have found it with their young QB taking over now.

The Mia Dolphins had a decent NFL preseason finishing with a 2-1 record. Their last game had a crazy ending as they won the game in the last minute with a drive that ended up resulting in a touchdown and 2-point conversion. Tua Tagovailoa will be starting at quarterback and he got a break in the last preseason game. He did play in the first 2 preseason games and he was good, completing 8/11 passes for 99 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception in the first game and completing 16/23 passes for 183 yards and 1 touchdown. Myles Gaskin will be leading the running game for them and he will have to kick it up a notch from last season as he only rushed for 584 yards in 10 games, 7 of those as the starting RB. The Dolphins do not have many reliable wide receivers either with DeVante Parker being the only one. Tua will have to work with some receivers that have not played in a while or had some quiet years in their past seasons. This offense is a bit of a mixed bag so it will be up to their young quarterback to step up and make the big plays to his receivers.

The NE Patriots finished this preseason steamrolling over teams with a 3-0 record. They struggled a bit in their last preseason game with a 22-20 win over the New York Giants but, the 2 games prior to that their defense only allowed 13 points between the 2 games. Cam Newton was released by the team recently which means that Mac Jones has won the starting job for the Pats. Mac Jones played great in the preseason averaging over 100 passing yards per game and did not throw a single interception. His receivers are not the greatest but they are still some quality players. Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith can make the big plays as long as Jones can get the ball in their hands. Both of their running backs JJ Taylor and Damien Harris have very little experience playing in the NFL and will have to get on the right page quickly if they plan on improving from last season. Bill Belichick is a defensive coach and should have their defense in good shape all year. They have already shown in the preseason that they can hold teams to very few points and they will need to carry that over to the regular season. 

The Patriots come into this game as a 3-point favorite at home but their offense still has a lot of question marks. Rookie Mac Jones will be a key player on this team as he will essentially have to carry the offense through their games. The Dolphins already had a surprisingly successful season last year even making the playoffs and they could easily repeat that with the pieces they have. The Patriots have a very good defense but the Dolphins are a little more stable with their offense. The value is on them to cover the spread or even on the moneyline here on the road and possibly even upset in this game.

Dolphins Patriots Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 12, 2021 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Dolphins 24 Patriots 21.
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NFL Betting Trends

Miami Dolphins: 5-2 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 20-12 ATS in all games. 16-9 ATS as an underdog.
New England Patriots: 8-8 ATS in home games.

Key Injuries

Miami Dolphins:  L. Coleman (T) Late Nov - Knee injury. V. Biegel (LB) I-R - Undisclosed injury. L. Bowden Jr. (WR) I-R - Hamstring injury.
New England Patriots:  N. Harry (WR) Out indefinitely - Shoulder injury. J. Stidham (QB) Out indefinitely - Back injury. C. McGrone (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. A. Jennings (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. T. Hall (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. S. Gilmore (CB) Out indefinitely - Quadricep injury.

Players to Watch

Miami Dolphins: Mike Gesicki is just one of the Dolphins players to watch in this game. Each season he has been in the NFL he has slowly improved his game. In his first year he only received for 202 yards but, he received for 570 in the next season and then 703 in his last. He will want to keep improving his numbers even more now that he is the starter for the tight end position.
New England Patriots: Mac Jones is one player to watch for the Patriots in this game. This is his first season in the NFL and he just beat out Cam Newton for the starting job. He will want to prove why he deserves to keep that job and why he earned it in the first place by continuing his great play from the preseason. Watch for him to make some big plays in this game to help boost his offense.

Notable Quotes

"Reid made some big throws. He battled to the bitter end and made a play at the end. I'm excited for him. He played his butt off tonight." - Bri Flores on the game winning touchdown by one of his backup QBs.
"I've gotten a lot of opportunities to play and I can improve on everything I want to improve on. There's a lot of work to do, but I think I've made progress." - Mac Jones on his performance in the last preseason game that ultimately won him the starting job.

Starting Lineups

Miami Dolphins
WR Parker, DeVante 
WR Hollins, Mack 
WR Wilson, Albert 
TE Shaheen, Adam 
TE Gesicki, Mike 
QB Tagovailoa, Tua 
RB Gaskin, Myles 
New England Patriots
WR Agholor, Nelson 
WR Meyers, Jakobi 
TE Smith, Jonnu 
QB Jones, Mac 
RB Harris, Damien 
RB Taylor, JJ 
Miami Dolphins: Brian Flores (3rd season)
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (22nd season)

Weather Forecast

75 degrees F mostly sunny, 62% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 9 mph wind speeds W.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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