Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds, Picks and Preview - 10/17/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 9:30 a.m. ET, October 17, 2021
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Dolphins -3.5
BetMGM: Dolphins -3.5
Caesars: Dolphins -3.5

Season record
Dolphins: 1-4 (T-3rd, AFC East)
Jaguars: 0-5 (Last place, AFC South)

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Dolphins - Jaguars preview and analysis


Recent form
Dolphins: lost 45-17 at Buccaneers in Week 5
Jaguars: lost 37-19 vs. Titans in Week 5

For the second week in a row, the NFL has found a way to terrorize its international fanbase with two teams that will not move the needle in London.

Welcome the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars to Tottenham. Hopefully the performance is 10 times better than what the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons gave us a week ago.

However, I will be fair for a moment. The Jets actually made it an interesting game all the way to the fourth quarter before they Jets-ed it away.

And as it pertains to this week's matchup, the Dolphins will have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back after dealing with fractured ribs the past few weeks. No disrespect to QB Jacoby Brissett, but again, if you're growing the game, he doesn't move the needle to face Trevor Lawrence.

Which in hindsight, it's already a bad look for Lawrence to carry the lifeless corpse of an 0-5 team to London. The Jags are coming off an 18-point loss to a banged-up Tennessee Titans team at home in what has been just a horrendous situation for the No. 1 overall pick.

The player is not the problem. He had 273 yards, a touchdown and an interception last week and is doing everything a young quarterback can do with no elite weapons and absolutely no help on the defensive side. Lawrence had a quarterback rating of 92.1 and is looking for his third straight game with that number. His six touchdown passes top all rookies and the 1,146 yards are second.

"I see a group of warriors. I see a group of players that I love to death," head coach Urban Meyer said. "I see a group of players that are spilling it on the field and we're not getting it. We're not closing it out."

But the Jacksonville defense is not what it used to be, and that's where the Dolphins can take advantage. The Jaguars have allowed 30.4 points per game and have only one takeaway this season. Jalen Ramsey and Calais Campbell aren't walking through that door.

With Tagovailoa off IR, there's belief that this Miami offense could start getting things going. Tagovailoa not only has the better arm, but his mobility gives more to the running game. They'll need that after losing by four touchdowns to the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

"We didn't execute our game plan defensively. Just collectively as a defense we just didn't do enough. I'm concerned. We're out of sync," Miami coach Brian Flores said. "We've adjusted some things, but we're not seeing the production on Sundays."

Against a questionable offense with their quarterback on the horizon, this is what the Dolphins need as they come in on a four-game losing streak.

Prediction


Jacksonville's pass defense has been just as bad. Tagovailoa's return paves way for DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle to get back into the groove of being one of the best receiver duos in the league. Easy win for Miami. Dolphins by 17

Betting trends


The Dolphins are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a non-conference game.

Miami is 1-5 ATS since 1992 after rushing for 50 yards or less in consecutive games.

The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in Weeks 5-9 the last three seasons.

The under is 12-4 in Jacksonville’s last 16 in games after the total was 50 or more the week prior.

Players to watch


Dolphins: Tight end Mike Gesicki  is looking for his fourth straight game with at least four receptions and 40 yards.

Jaguars: Linebacker Myles Jack has at least six tackles in four of five games this season.

Statistical leaders


Dolphins:
Passing: Jacoby Brissett -- 858 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 167 yards
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 237 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Brandon Jones -- 2 sacks

Jaguars:
Passing: Trevor Lawrence -- 1,146 yards, 6 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: James Robinson -- 387 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Marvin Jones -- 243 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Josh Allen -- 2.5 sacks

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Dolphins - Jacksonville Jaguars prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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