by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 25, 2024
Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Thursday, November 28, 2024
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins +3, Packers -3; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins +3, Packers -3; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins +3, Packers -3; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 5-6 (2nd place, AFC East)
Green Bay Packers: 8-3 (3rd place, NFC North)
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Recent Form
Miami Dolphins: won their last game at home against the New England Patriots 34-15.
Green Bay Packers: won their last game at home against the San Francisco 49ers 38-10.
Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Preview and Analysis
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 5-6 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New England Patriots 34-15. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 29/40 passes for 317 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 32. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 144 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Jordyn Brooks led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Chop Robinson led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Tyrel Dodson came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Packers are entering this game with an 8-3 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 38-10. Jordan Love was the starting QB and he completed 13/23 passes for 163 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Josh Jacobs led the team in rushing yards with 106 and 3 TDs. Romeo Doubs led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Javon Bullard and Quay Walker each led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary each led the defense in sacks with 1. Xavier McKinney came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Dolphins vs Packers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Packers listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Packers have looked really good in their games this season with their 8-3 record overall, but that record only has them in 3rd place of the NFC North and fighting for a Wild Card spot at the moment. They are still in the division race with their 8-3 record overall, but they have 2 solid teams in the Lions and the Vikings ahead of them so they need to continue rolling over teams like they have been doing lately. They have looked a lot better since Love came back healthy and they are coming off a nice 38-10 win over the 49ers in their last one. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 5-6 record overall, but that record has them in 2nd place of the AFC East and still in the playoff race. They also went through a rough stretch with their starting QB being injured, but they have looked a lot better with Tua back healthy and now have 2 wins in a row. As much as they have improved with Tua back, their defense has still been an issue against better offenses and it was the reason they lost 2 of their games since he came back. Both of these teams are starting to roll, but the Packers have been looking better on defense lately and the home advantage is going to help give them the edge too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Packers to cover the spread in this game.
Dolphins Packers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, November 28, 2024 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Packers 34 Dolphins 28.
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NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 4-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 6-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 5-10 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 yards/game or more. 11-2 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 7-3 OVER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 6-3 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att.
Green Bay Packers: 7-3 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 6-2 1H ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 9-4 OVER off a home win. 12-7 OVER after playing a game at home. 16-8 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: R. Mostert (RB) Injured - Hip. B. Jones (DT) Injured - Shoulder. A. Brewer (OL) Injured - Shoulder. J. Brooks (LB) Injured - Wrist. J. Ramsey (CB) Injured - Knee. K. Fuller (CB) Out - Concussion. I. Wynn (OL) Questionable - Quad. T. Hill (WR) Injured - Wrist. C. Campbell (DT) Injured - Rest. J. Poyer (SAF) Injured - Rest. T. Armstead (T) Questionable - Knee. T. Bowser (OLB) Injured - Knee. A. Ingold (FB) Questionable - Calf. J. Hill (TE) Injured - Shoulder. J. Holland (SAF) Injured - Hand. R. Jones (OL) Injured - Knee. P. McMorris (SAF) Questionable - Calf.
Green Bay Packers: E. Cooper (LB) Out - Hamstring. E. Jenkins (OL) Injured - Rest. R. Walker (T) Injured - Knee. K. Clark (DL) Injured - Toe. J. Jacobs (RB) Injured - Quadricep. J. Alexander (CB) Out - Knee. J. Myers (OL) Injured - Wrist. C. Wooden (DL) Questionable - Shoulder. E. Williams (SAF) Injured - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“The most monumental thing that you have to overcome as a quarterback is playing the position regardless of the ebbs and flows, so not changing how you play based upon positive or negative results and letting every play stand on its own.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s win against the Patriots in their last game.
“It's been as advertised. Those guys have just been instrumental in our ability to win games.” - Matt LaFleur after his team’s win against the 49ers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Washington, Malik
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Green Bay Packers
WR Doubs, Romeo
WR Watson, Christian
WR Reed, Jayden
TE Kraft, Tucker
QB Love, Jordan
RB Jacobs, Josh
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (1760)
Rushing: D. Achane (562)
Receiving: T. Hill (571)
Touchdowns: D. Achane (8)
Green Bay Packers
Passing: J. Love (2244)
Rushing: J. Jacobs (944)
Receiving: J. Reed (669)
Touchdowns: J. Jacobs (8)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (3rd season)
Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
