by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Sep 26, 2022
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bengals -3
FanDuel: Bengals -3
BetMGM: Bengals -3
Caesars: Bengals -3
Season record
Dolphins: 3-0
Bengals: 1-2
Are you not entertained by the NFL season one month in? What action we've had, and we're already down to the point where the 1972 Miami Dolphins can start popping champagne. Only three undefeated teams remain heading into the Monday Night matchup and there were upsets galore this past weekend. And of course, nothing was more electric than our own Wayne Root going 8-2-0 in the NFL this past weekend. So many upsets, so many big covers and backdoor covers, what in the world will Week 4 hold? Make sure you're following Wayne and our other champion handicappers to find out what we're rolling with so you may get on the action. You can find all of this on our Best Bets page.
Dolphins - Bengals preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Dolphins: won 21-19 vs. Bills
Bengals: won 27-12 at Jets
At time of publishing, there are two 3-0 teams in the NFL – the Philadelphia Eagles, and the … Miami Dolphins? Truly incredible what the Dolphins have put together in three weeks. Not only are they winning on both sides of the ball, but they’re getting the quarterback play they were craving from Tua Tagovailoa. He has played incredibly through three weeks, and his performance in the shocking 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday was no different. Tua had his most ho-hum performance of the season going 13 of 18 for 186 yards and a touchdown, but he came back after getting knocked out of the game with what was initially thought to be a concussion, but led his team to victory over the presumptive Super Bowl favorites.
At time of publishing, there are two 3-0 teams in the NFL – the Philadelphia Eagles, and the … Miami Dolphins? Truly incredible what the Dolphins have put together in three weeks. Not only are they winning on both sides of the ball, but they’re getting the quarterback play they were craving from Tua Tagovailoa. He has played incredibly through three weeks, and his performance in the shocking 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday was no different. Tua had his most ho-hum performance of the season going 13 of 18 for 186 yards and a touchdown, but he came back after getting knocked out of the game with what was initially thought to be a concussion, but led his team to victory over the presumptive Super Bowl favorites.
“I don’t like these shock endings,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said. “But I’m just really, really happy for the team because this much I do know: Teams win football games, and if you are going to have success over the long haul, you have to have confidence that whatever phase can win a football game for you, can go ahead and do that.”
You don’t have to like these shock endings, Mike, but man, if your team can show this type of resilience in a come-from-behind win in Baltimore and then to do it at home against Buffalo, you’ll take the heart attack every time. Your defense forced Josh Allen to throw 63 times like he was back in Wyoming. Sure, he still threw for 400 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another 47, but you’ll take that any day of the week when your defense holds this ridiculous offense to just 19 points. Your team was outgained 497-212, had the ball for just 19:20, and yet still found a way to win. The Dolphins are absolutely legit and no one should think otherwise. The receiver tandem of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are lethal and will scare any defense they play. This 3-0 is no fluke, and it might run out of luck on Thursday, but again, you’ll take this any day of the week.
Sure, it took beating the New York Jets to finally get on the board, but it turned out to be a complete effort for the Cincinnati Bengals in their 27-12 win over the Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Joe Burrow finally had his Joe Burrow game by throwing for 275 yards and three touchdowns, and the Cincinnati defense did its thing to Joe Flacco and made him look like Joe Flacco again. That’s about all the Bengals needed after starting 0-2 with losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home and the Dak Prescott-less Dallas Cowboys. And, of course, the Bengals with a solid cover as 6.5-point favorites. You’ll take that if you’re the Bengals.
“We felt like we were a good team,” Bengals coach Zac Taylor said. “We weren’t changing anything about us internally. We just know that the season’s going to balance out. We’re going to start to gather steam and that’s what we did today.”
The Bengals defense forced four Jets turnovers, which doesn’t seem hard to do, but given the Jets were coming off the shocking win over the Cleveland Browns the previous week, anything is possible as it pertains to the NFL. The Bengals, at the very least, proved that they are not a laughingstock.
Prediction
This is going to be a very fun Thursday night game, which hardly ever happens. But now that the Bengals are in the win column, I do think the Dolphins’ run will come to an end. It’s going to be a great game, but to travel on a short week after an emotionally charged win? I can’t get behind Miami. But if the Dolphins win, better believe we’re all going to be sipping the Kool-Aid. Bengals by 6
Betting trends
Dolphins are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 as an underdog.
Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog; they are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a road dog of seven points or less.
Dolphins are 3-0 ATS in their last three against AFC North teams.
Bengals are 4-4 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite.
Bengals are 18-10 ATS in their last 28 against conference opponents.
Statistical leaders
Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 925 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Chase Edmonds -- 79 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 342 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Jevon Holland -- 1 INT
Bengals:
Passing: Joe Burrow -- 812 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Joe Mixon -- 163 yards
Receiving: Ja'Marr Chase -- 212 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Trey Hendrickson -- 2.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
