Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/6/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Thursday, Nov 03, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Dolphins -5
FanDuel: Dolphins -5
BetMGM: Dolphins -5
Caesars: Dolphins -5

Season record
Dolphins: 5-3
Bears: 3-5

November is here, the midway mark is here in the NFL season, and there's a lot of good football left to be played. Have you been keeping up with the NFC East? It's insane, right? What about what happened in the trade market this week? Even more insane! The landscape of the NFL has suddenly changed, and this week will be the first time to actually see what transpires. Our champion handicappers are killing it this NFL season. Jack Banks is sitting with a 13-8-0 mark over the last month, and Sean Murphy was even better with a 6-1-0 run this last week. What will our guys do this week with an enticing week coming up? Make sure you're plugged to bigal.com to find out!

Dolphins - Bears preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Dolphins: won 31-27 at Lions
Bears: lost 49-29 at Cowboys

We can assure everyone involved that this game will not resemble the 1984 Monday Night Football classic where the Miami Dolphins ended the '85 Chicago Bears' undefeated run on their way to a Super Bowl. That would require the Bears to be good, and Dan Marino to be playing for Miami.

The good news for the Dolphins is Tua Tagovailoa is pretty dang good himself and doesn't need to be Marino in this one. The Dolphins are coming in here 5-3 and a chance to inch back closer to the top of the AFC East standings after winning their second straight following three losses in a row. The Bears are, well, the Bears and have nothing good going for them in this matchup after getting blown out by the Dallas Cowboys last week.

Miami had to rally from down 21-7 in the second quarter to win 31-27 against the Detroit Lions, but if there's one thing we learned it's that if you are the Lions this year, you have all the bad luck and have nothing going right for you at 1-6. Tua is also back and playing like a God, throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winner to Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds remaining for the win. Tyreek Hill is absolutely coming for 2,000 yards after a 12-catch, 188-yard performance to put the league's leading receiver within earshot of 1,000 yards heading into this week.

"That was the first time we've ever hit that route on that concept and you rarely ever see it," Miami coach Mike McDaniel said of the touchdown. "It was No. 4 in the progression."

No. 4? How bad do you have to be in Detroit to give Tua that much time to dissect you and win a game? Pretty bad, apparently. But with Tagovailoa at full health, the Dolphins are ready to make a move at 5-3. One can say they already made a huge move this week by acquiring pass rusher Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos before the trade deadline to bolster a defense that could use some help. Miami has given up 24 points per game while allowing 275 yards through the air. And it doesn't sound like Chubb, the former first-round pick, is staying as a rental.

"When you do a deal like that for a player, you always would like to -- from our perspective when we do business -- we would like to have something done, and we anticipate having something finished up here shortly," Dolphins GM Chris Grier said.

Chubb joins an energized Dolphins club that's now going all-in, and who can blame them if defense was the only problem? It's problems that the Bears would like to have but are staring at the barrell of another disappointing year as they hope to salvage whatever progression they can get out of Justin Fields. The young QB actually had a great day, going 17 of 23 for 151 yards and two touchdowns, while running for 60 yards and another score. The Bears just, well, couldn't stop a nosebleed en route to 49 points and three touchdowns from Tony Pollard.

"Obviously we've got to do a better job getting off the field," said first-year Bears coach Matt Eberflus, who was on the Dallas defensive staff for seven seasons before spending the past four as defensive coordinator in Indianapolis. "We didn't do a very good job really all day on run defense."

That's been the Bears' MO for the entire year, really. But hey, if they can get something out of this after trading for receiver Chase Claypool, maybe that's a good sign. Claypool comes over from Pittsburgh with 2,044 yards and 12 touchdowns over the last two-plus years. But he hasn't managed to keep the production up from his rookie year. God bless him in this offense.

Prediction


The Dolphins escaped against Detroit, but if they can get Hill going on the outside, it won't be an escape against Chicago. They don't have enough in the secondary to make plays to stop this passing attack. And if Tua gets a running game going, it'll be over by half. Dolphins by 17

Betting trends


Dolphins are 10-9 ATS in road games the last three years; 2-2 this season.

Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine November games.

Dolphins are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 off a non-conference game.

Dolphins are 5-1 ATS after scoring 30 or more the previous game.

Bears are 4-9 ATS as a home underdog the last three years.

Bears are 18-13 ATS since 1993 against AFC East teams.

The under is 35-17 since 1992 when the Bears lose by 14 or more the previous game.

Statistical leaders


Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 1,678 yards, 12 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Raheem Mostert -- 452 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Tyreek Hill -- 961 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Jaelan Phillips -- 3 sacks

Bears:
Passing: Justin Fields -- 1,199 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Khalil Herbert -- 563 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Darnell Mooney -- 364 yards
Defense: Eddie Jackson -- 4 INT

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Dolphins - Chicago Bears prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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