by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Dec 17, 2022
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Where to watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bills -7; Bills -315, Dolphins +260; O/U 43.5
FanDuel: Bills -7; Bills -330, Dolphins +265; O/U 43.5
BetMGM: Bills -7; Bills -300, Dolphins +240; O/U 43.5
Caesars: Bills -7; Bills -340, Dolphins +270; O/U 43.5
Season record
Dolphins: 8-5 (2nd place, AFC East)
Bills: 10-3 (1st place, AFC East)
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Dolphins - Bills preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Dolphins: lost 23-17 at Chargers
Bills: won 20-12 vs. Jets
Dolphins analysis
The Miami Dolphins’ chances at the AFC East have slowly faded away and are hanging on by a thread. A loss won’t completely end their playoff hopes, but the division title chances go up in smoke thanks to a bad two-game trip in California.
The Dolphins had gone 3-2 against the spread in the first four of Tua Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion, a stretch that included five straight outright wins and put them on par with the Bills in the standings.
But with two straight losses to the 49ers and Chargers, as well as only scoring 17 points in each of those games, the Dolphins are floundering a little bit. Not only that, the offense has gone cold in each of those runs. Tagovailoa had 275 yards against the 49ers but the running game was held to 33. The ground game got back with 92 yards against the Chargers, but held Tua to 127.
That doesn’t stop the fact that Tua has thrown for 14 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions in his last seven starts. Whether that kind of success can carry to the road remains to be seen. Tyreek Hill, with 955 receiving yards on the road this season, is probably primed for games like these in this situation.
Bills analysis
Remember when the Buffalo Bills lost to the Minnesota Vikings and everything seemed to be in freefall? Maybe that they had been finally figured out? Four straight wins and suddenly things aren’t falling. That includes two wins in Detroit, one against Detroit, and a road win against the Patriots. It might not be a dominant effort, but the Bills are getting it done.
For as confident of a bounce-back effort as the Bills have made this as of late, getting ATS wins hasn’t been the easiest. The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven with three losses coming by at least seven points. Not a lot of confidence ranging from this.
Josh Allen has not been consistent the last few weeks, either. Despite winning 20-12 against the New York Jets at home last week, Allen had just 194 total yards and two touchdowns in the win. The good news is he didn’t turn the ball over, and maybe that’s the kind of barometer we should be setting. If the weather permits, he needs to find a way to get Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis involved.
Diggs, closing in on 100 receptions this season, has a touchdown in three of his past four games. Even though he was limited last week, he’s going to need some big moments in order to ensure Buffalo can do some damage to end the regular season. And it would help my fantasy team, too.
Prediction
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel wants it to be colder, and he’s going to get it. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four following a straight-up loss, and Tua isn’t even familiar with cold games. Buffalo wraps up the division and takes care of business. Bills by 10
Betting trends
Bills are 21-37 ATS after winning 4 of 5 since 1992.
Bills are 9-22 ATS after 4 straight wins since 1992.
Dolphins are 15-30 ATS on the road after being outgained by 100 total yards or more in the last
Statistical leaders
Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa – 3,004 yards, 22 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Jeff Wilson – 706 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Tyreek Hill – 100 receptions, 1,460 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Bradley Chubb – 8 sacks
Bills:
Passing: Josh Allen – 3,553 yards, 26 TD, 11 INT
Rushing: Devin Singletary – 642 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Stefon Diggs – 1,239 yards, 10 TD
Defense: Jordan Poyer – 4 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
