by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Friday, Oct 29, 2021
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 31, 2021
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins +13.5, Bills -13.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins +13.5, Bills -13.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins +13.5, Bills -13.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 1-6 (4th place, AFC East)
Buffalo Bills: 4-2 (1st place, AFC East)
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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Miami Dolphins: lost at home on Oct. 24 against the Atlanta Falcons 30-28.
Buffalo Bills: lost on the road on Oct. 18 against the Tennessee Titans 34-31.
Miami Dolphins Analysis
The Dolphins are coming into this game with a 1-6 record overall and they are 1-3 in their road games where they will be in this game. This will be their 3rd divisional matchup of the year and they are 1-1 in their divisional games this season. They have already played the reverse matchup in Miami losing that one 35-0 against the Bills and will now be going to Buffalo for this game. They have lost 6 straight games coming into this one since winning their season opener. Their last loss was against the Atlanta Falcons at home and that was a very close game. That game went back and forth all day until the Falcons won it with a walk-off field goal to win the game by 2 points 30-28. Tua Tagovailoa was alright in that game but he also struggled at times as he completed 32/40 passes for 291 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Myles Gaskin led the team in rushing with 67 yards on 15 carries in that one. Mike Gesicki led the receivers with 85 yards and 1 touchdown on 7 receptions while Jaylen Waddle had 83 yards on 7 receptions. Gaskin, Mack Hollins, and Isaiah Ford all caught the other touchdown passes with 1 each. Eric Rowe led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Jevon Holland led the defense in sacks in that game with 1 while Xavien Howard came away with the only interception for them. They have scored 127 points in their 7 games this season averaging 18.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 207 points against them allowing 29.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 307.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 414.9 YPG.
Buffalo Bills Analysis
The Bills are coming into this game with a 4-2 record overall and they are 2-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 2nd divisional matchup on their schedule this year and they are already 1-0 in their divisional games this season after beating the Dolphins in Miami in an earlier week 35-0. The Bills just had a 4 game winning streak snapped in their last game against the Tennessee Titans coming into this one out of their bye week. That was a very close game and the Bills had a chance to win it in the last minute of that game but a botched quarterback sneak on the Titans 5 yard line on a 4th and 1 ended up costing them that game as they turned it over on downs after Josh Allen slipped on the play. Josh Allen had a decent game in that one as he completed 35/47 passes for 353 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Devin Singletary led the team in rushing with 27 yards on 5 carries but they really had no run game going for them in that one. Emmanuel Sanders led the receivers with 91 yards on 5 receptions while Stefon Diggs had 89 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 receptions. Cole Beasley also had a nice game making 7 catches for 88 yards and 1 touchdown. Tremaine Edmunds led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. No one on the defense recorded a sack in that game while Jordan Poyer was the only player to come away with an interception for them. They have scored 203 points in their 6 games this season averaging 33.8 PPG and their defense have allowed their opponents to score 98 points against them allowing 16.3 PPG. Their offense is averaging 411.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 270.2 YPG.
Dolphins vs Bills Prediction
The Bills are coming into this game as a 13.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins are very bad this year and they have not won a game since all the way back in week 1. The Bills have already smashed the Dolphins once this season and that was in Miami, now the game is in Buffalo and the Bills are coming out of their bye week after losing in their last game in a very close one. The Bills did not even let the Dolphins score a point in their last meeting and it will likely be the same here with the Bills fans in the crowd for this one. The best bet to place in this game is on the Bills to cover the spread here as this is going to be another blowout win for them.
Dolphins Bills Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 31, 2021 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 42 Dolphins 7.
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NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 11-20 O/U as an underdog of 10 or more points. 218-259 O/U in all games. 121-138 O/U as an underdog. 77-100 O/U as a road underdog. 107-128 O/U in road games. 164-195 O/U against conference opponents.
Buffalo Bills: 12-6 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. 240-228 ATS in all games. 112-105 ATS as a favorite. 82-70 ATS as a home favorite. 122-106 ATS in home games.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: T. Tagovailoa (QB) Prob Sun - Ribs injury. Z. Sieler (DT) Prob Sun - Ribs injury. J. Brissett (QB) Prob Sun - Hamstring injury.
Buffalo Bills: J. Zimmer (DT) Ques Sun - Foot injury. S. Brown (T) Ques Sun - Back injury. D. Knox (TE) Mid Nov - Hand injury.
Notable Quotes
"The margin for error is slim in this league." - Tua Tagovailoa after their close loss to the Falcons in their last game.
"I was just trying to find a window to get in there, and quarterback sneaks aren't the funnest play by any means." - Josh Allen on the quarterback sneak that he slipped on and turned the ball over on downs ultimately leading to their loss.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Parker, DeVante
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Wilson, Albert
TE Shaheen, Adam
TE Gesicki, Mike
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Gaskin, Myles
Buffalo Bills
WR SANDERS, EMMANUEL
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR BEASLEY, COLE
TE Knox, Dawson
QB Allen, Josh
RB Singletary, Devin
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: J. Brissett (883)
Rushing: M. Gaskin (243)
Receiving: M. Gesicki (427)
Touchdowns: J. Waddle (3)
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (1723)
Rushing: D. Singletary (311)
Receiving: S. Diggs (463)
Touchdowns: D. Knox (5)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Brian Flores (3rd season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (5th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
