Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/01/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 1, 2023

Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Dolphins +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  53.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Dolphins +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  53.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Dolphins +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  53.5 points

Miami Dolphins:  3-0 (1st place, AFC East)

Buffalo Bills:  2-1 (2nd place, AFC East)

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Miami Dolphins:  won their last game at home against the Denver Broncos 70-20.

Buffalo Bills:  won their last game on the road against the Washington Commanders 37-3.

The Dolphins are entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Denver Broncos 70-20. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 23/26 passes for 309 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 203 and 2 TDs. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 157 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Jevon Holland led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Emmanuel Ogbah led the defense in sacks with 1. Emmanuel Ogbah came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

The Bills are entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Washington Commanders 37-3. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 20/32 passes for 218 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 98. Stefon Diggs led the receivers with 111 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Terrel Bernard led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Terrel Bernard and Leonard Floyd each led the defense in sacks with 2. Terrel Bernard, Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde, and A.J. Epenesa each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills were embarrassed in week 1 after losing to the Jets even after Aaron Rodgers went down right away. They have responded well to that loss with 2 really good wins and have looked really good in their games. They have put up 30+ points in each of their last 2 games now but their defense has been the real stars as they have given up just 13 points in their last 2 games. The Dolphins enter this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL this year if not the best. They just pulled off a 70-20 win over the Broncos in their last game which broke records but Buffalo is a place they have always struggled in and they are going to be due for a let down spot after a game like they had last week. The Bills defense has been playing really well the last 2 weeks and they are going to cause problems for Tua and this Bills offense. The Dolphins defense hasn't been that great either as they have given up a lot of points in these first 3 weeks and the Bills are going to get their opportunities to score here. The Bills are also going to bring their best effort to take down the Dolphins at home after the way they played last week so they have plenty of motivation to show Miami that the Bills are still the team to beat in the division. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game. 

Dolphins Bills Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 1, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 23 Dolphins 20.

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Miami Dolphins: 2-10 ATS after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. 17-29 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. 32-19 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 16-6 UNDER off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.

Buffalo Bills: 6-3 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. 8-3 ATS off a non-conference game. 23-14 UNDER as a favorite. 11-6 UNDER after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in their previous game.

Miami Dolphins:  C. Williams (OL) day-to-day - Groin. E. Apple (CB) day-to-day - Concussion. J. Phillips (LB) day-to-day - Oblique. R. Cracraft (WR) day-to-day - Shoulder. S. Ahmed (RB) day-to-day - Groin. T. Kroft (TE) day-to-day - Back. J. Waddle (WR) day-to-day - Concussion. R. Jones (OL) Early Oct - Knee. J. Wilson Jr. (RB) Out indefinitely - Abdominal. J. Ramsey (CB) Mid Dec - Knee. N. Needham (CB) Out indefinitely - Achilles. K. Crossen (DB) I-R - Undisclosed. Z. Vandenburgh (LB) I-R - Undisclosed.

Buffalo Bills:  B. Spector (LB) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Shorter (WR) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. V. Miller (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Doyle (OT) I-R - Knee. Z. Davidson (TE) I-R - Knee. N. Hines (RB) I-R - Knee.

“It felt like chasing points and chasing a record — that’s not what we came to the game to do." - Mike McDaniel after his team’s win against the Broncos in their last game.

“Our big thing was just attack, attack, attack, pressure, be physical — make them uncomfortable. That’s our comfort zone. When we’re flying around and we’re playing aggressive like that, that’s just us as an identity and that’s what we’re trying to establish and keep that going throughout the entire season.” - A.J. Epenesa after their win against the Commanders in their last game.

WR Waddle, Jaylen 

WR Hill, Tyreek 

WR Berrios, Braxton 

TE Smythe, Durham 

QB Tagovailoa, Tua 

RB MOSTERT, RAHEEM 

FB Ingold, Alec 

WR Davis, Gabe 

WR Diggs, Stefon 

WR Harty, Deonte 

TE Knox, Dawson 

QB Allen, Josh 

RB Cook, James 

FB Gilliam, Reggie 

Passing: T. Tagovailoa (1024)

Rushing: R. Mostert (240)

Receiving: T. Hill (412)

Touchdowns: R. Mostert (7)

Passing: J. Allen (728)

Rushing: J. Cook (267)

Receiving: S. Diggs (279)

Touchdowns: L. Murray (2)

Coaches:

Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)

Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (7th season)