by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 29, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 31, 2023
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins +3.5, Ravens -3.5; Over/Under: 47 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins +3, Ravens -3; Over/Under: 47 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins +3.5, Ravens -3.5; Over/Under: 47 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 11-4 (1st place, AFC East)
Baltimore Ravens: 12-3 (1st place, AFC North)
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Miami Dolphins: won their last game at home against the Dallas Cowboys 22-20.
Baltimore Ravens: won their last game on the road against the San Francisco 49ers 33-19.
Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens Preview and Analysis
The Dolphins are entering this game with an 11-4 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 22-20. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 24/37 passes for 293 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Raheem Mostert led the team in rushing yards with 46. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 99 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Andrew Van Ginkel led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb each led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Ravens are entering this game with a 12-3 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-2 in their home games, 6-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 33-19. Lamar Jackson was the starting QB and he completed 23/35 passes for 252 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Lamar Jackson led the team in rushing yards with 45. Zay Flowers led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Marcus Williams led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Brent Urban led the defense in sacks with 2. Kyle Hamilton came away with 2 interceptions for them while Marcus Williams, Patrick Queen, and Marlon Humphrey each came away with 1 interception in that game.
Dolphins vs Ravens Prediction
The current betting odds have the Ravens listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Ravens have looked really good in their games this season with their 12-3 record overall and they are on pace to win the number 1 seed in the AFC. They have looked great in their games lately and they are coming off a huge statement win against the 49ers in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have also looked great in their games this season with their 11-4 record overall which has them as the best team in the AFC East this season. The Dolphins haven't looked as good in their road games though with their 4-2 road record and they have struggled a lot more in their games against teams with winning records this year. They did beat the Cowboys last week but that game was at home and they also struggled to win that game, needing a very late field goal to win it. The Ravens are rolling right now as they look like one of the best teams in the NFL after their win last week. The best way to place a bet here is on the Ravens to cover the spread in this game.
Dolphins Ravens Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 31, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Ravens 28 Dolphins 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 10-5 ATS in all games. 7-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders. 11-6 ATS off a home win. 26-16 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 16-6 UNDER after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.
Baltimore Ravens: 7-13 ATS as a home favorite. 3-11 ATS off 2 consecutive road wins. 8-16 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 13-7 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 23-14 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 9-4 UNDER off a road win.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: L. Cotton Sr. (G) Ques Sun - Hip. A. Van Ginkel (LB) Ques Sun - Wrist. T. Tagovailoa (QB) Ques Sun - Thumb. X. Howard (CB) Ques Sun - Hip. L. Eichenberg (OL) Ques Sun - Calf. T. Armstead (OT) Ques Sun - Knee. D. Achane (RB) Ques Sun - Toe. R. Mostert (RB) Prob Sun - Ankle. J. Holland (S) Ques Sun - Knee. R. Hunt (OL) Ques Sun - Hamstring. E. Ogbah (DE) Ques Sun - Hamstring. C. Smith (CB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. A. Jackson (OL) Ques Sun - Oblique. R. Chosen (WR) Ques Sun - Concussion. J. Waddle (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle. C. Williams (OL) I-R - Knee. J. Baker (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Phillips (LB) I-R - Achilles. S. Ahmed (RB) Out indefinitely - Foot. I. Wynn (OL) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. E. Ezukanma (WR) Out indefinitely - Neck. K. Crossen (DB) I-R - Undisclosed. Z. Vandenburgh (LB) I-R - Undisclosed.
Baltimore Ravens: B. Stephens (DB) Ques Sun - Ankle. B. Washington (DT) Prob Sun - Elbow. R. Smith (LB) Prob Sun - Pectoral. P. Queen (LB) Prob Sun - Shoulder. D. Phillips (LB) Ques Sun - Shoulder. K. Zeitler (G) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Stout (P) Ques Sun - Back. P. Mekari (OL) Ques Sun - Concussion. Z. Flowers (WR) Ques Sun - Calf. A. Maulet (CB) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Armour-Davis (CB) Ques Sun - Concussion. K. Hamilton (S) Ques Sun - Knee. M. Hamm (LB) I-R - Lower Body. K. Mitchell (RB) I-R - Knee. D. Duvernay (WR) Out indefinitely - Back. M. Andrews (TE) I-R - Ankle. D. Ojabo (LB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. A. Washington (S) Out indefinitely - Chest. J. Dobbins (RB) I-R - Achilles. T. Bowser (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Mullen (CB) Out indefinitely - Toe. A. Vorhees (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“It’s always big when you do something that, internally, you know that you’re capable of. When it comes to fruition, it's pretty satisfying. Nobody on this team thought we were going to lose that game, and that's pretty cool when everyone tells you that you can't do X, Y or Z.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s win against the Cowboys in their last game.
“Our guys work hard. They compete hard. Everybody wants to be respected. There’s one way to be respected, and that’s to go out there and earn that.” - John Harbaugh after his team’s win against the 49ers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Wilson Jr., Cedrick
TE Smythe, Durham
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Mostert, Raheem
FB Ingold, Alec
Baltimore Ravens
WR Beckham JR., Odell
WR Bateman, Rashod
WR Flowers, Zay
TE Likely, Isaiah
QB Jackson, Lamar
RB Edwards, Gus
FB Ricard, Patrick
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (4214)
Rushing: R. Mostert (1012)
Receiving: T. Hill (1641)
Touchdowns: R. Mostert (21)
Baltimore Ravens
Passing: L. Jackson (3357)
Rushing: L. Jackson (786)
Receiving: Z. Flowers (752)
Touchdowns: G. Edwards (12)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)
Baltimore Ravens: John Harbaugh (16th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
