Memphis Tigers vs North Carolina State Wolfpack Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/19/2025

Game Time: 2:30 pm ET, Friday, December 19, 2025

Venue:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Memphis +6.5, NC State -6.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Memphis +6, NC State -6; Over/Under:  58 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Memphis +6, NC State -6; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Memphis Tigers:  8-4 (4-4) (6th place, American)

North Carolina State Wolfpack:  7-5 (4-4) (9th place, ACC)

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Memphis Tigers:  lost their last game at home against the Navy Midshipmen 28-17.

North Carolina State Wolfpack:  won their last game at home against the North Carolina Tar Heels 42-19.

Memphis is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Navy 28-17. Brendon Lewis was the starting QB and he completed 19/36 passes for 172 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Brendon Lewis led the team in rushing yards with 36. Cortez Braham Jr. led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Sam Brumfield led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while Kamari Wilson led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

NC State is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against North Carolina 42-19. CJ Bailey was the starting QB and he completed 21/30 passes for 201 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. CJ Bailey led the team in rushing yards with 65. Wesley Grimes led the receivers with 61 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Caden Fordham led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Caden Fordham, Travali Price, Tra Thomas, and Brandon Cleveland each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have NC State listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. NC State has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall, but their 4-4 conference record had them right in the middle of the ACC. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season so this will be their first, playing in the Gasparilla Bowl. Meanwhile, Memphis has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall, but their 4-4 conference record had them right in the middle of the American Conference. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season either. Memphis had a lot of aspirations this season as they were one of the teams that were in line to win the conference and possibly even go to the CFP, being ranked inside the top 25 at times throughout the year. Their season ended in disappointment though as they feel apart in the final games of the regular season, losing their last game at home to Navy 28-17, and now their head coach has left them for another job. NC State didn't have the best season, but they ended with a big win over their rival, beating UNC 42-19, and they looked good in the final games of the regular season. They didn't lose their head coach either so Doeren is going to have his team ready to go in this Gasparilla Bowl and end the season on a positive note. The best way to place a bet here is on NC State to cover the spread in this game. 

Memphis North Carolina State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, December 19, 2025 (2:30 pm ET start time) is NC State 38 Memphis 21.

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Memphis Tigers: 6-3 ATS as an underdog. 10-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 9-3 ATS in non-conference games. 19-11 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses.

North Carolina State Wolfpack: 2-11 ATS in non-conference games. 0-7 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 1-5 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. 6-1 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game.

Memphis Tigers:  B. White (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Logan Jr. (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Burke (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Miller (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Johnson (CB) Out - Undisclosed. O. Castaneda (K) Out - Undisclosed. G. Troutman (QB) Out - Undisclosed. C. Law (LB) Out - Undisclosed. K. Marsh (CB) Out - Undisclosed.

North Carolina State Wolfpack:  B. Barnhardt (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Brown (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Crowell (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Dixon (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Fagan (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Johnson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Mitchell (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Paylor (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Smith (OT) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. West (OT) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Sensabaugh (CB) Out - Undisclosed. T. Hinton (S) Out - Undisclosed.

"The biggest thing was just letting them know that they needed to trust that we were going to find the right head coach and letting them know that the culture is here. Memphis has built a tradition of winning over the past decade." - Reggie Howard on preparing the team for the Gasparilla Bowl with head coach Ryan Silverfield leaving for another job.

“To me, losing to them is unacceptable. I take a lot of pride in that rivalry game. It's very meaningful, man. It goes back to my first day here on the job. Can't tell you how many people welcomed me and said, ‘Whatever you do, beat them.’ So that really resonated. And our kids understand what it means to this fan base.” - Dave Doeren after his team’s win against UNC in their regular season finale. 

WR Braham Jr., Cortez

WR Bussey, Marcello

WR Hawkins, Jamari

TE Ross, Christian

QB Lewis, Brendon

RB Desrosiers Jr., Greg

WR Grimes, Wesley

WR Rogers, Noah

WR Jackson, Keenan

TE Joly, Justin

QB Bailey, CJ

RB Smothers, Hollywood

Passing: Brendon Lewis (2,567)

Rushing: Sutton Smith (669)

Receiving: Cortez Braham Jr. (889)

Touchdowns: Brendon Lewis (9)

Passing: CJ Bailey (2,884)

Rushing: Hollywood Smothers (939)

Receiving: Terrell Anderson (637)

Touchdowns: Will Wilson (9)

Coaches:

Memphis Tigers: Reggie Howard (Interim)

North Carolina State Wolfpack: Dave Doeren (13th season)