Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/29/2023

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Friday, December 29, 2023

Venue:  Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Memphis +10.5, ISU -10.5; Over/Under:  57.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Memphis +10.5, ISU -10.5; Over/Under:  57.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Memphis +10.5, ISU -10.5; Over/Under:  57.5 points

Memphis Tigers:  9-3 (6-2) (4th place, AAC)

Iowa State Cyclones:  7-5 (6-3) (6th place, Big 12)

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Memphis Tigers:  won their last game on the road against the Temple Owls 45-21.

Iowa State Cyclones:  won their last game on the road against the Kansas State Wildcats 42-35.

Memphis is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Temple 45-21. Seth Henigan was the starting QB and he completed 18/28 passes for 250 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Blake Watson led the team in rushing yards with 95 and 1 TD. Joseph Scates led the receivers with 78 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Cameron Smith led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while William Whitlow Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. Chandler Martin came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Iowa State is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 6-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Kansas State 42-35. Rocco Becht was the starting QB and he completed 8/12 passes for 230 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Abu Sama III led the team in rushing yards with 276 and 3 TDs. Jaylin Noel led the receivers with 160 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 2 TDs. Beau Freyler led the defense in that game with 13 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. Gerry Vaughn came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Memphis listed as a 10.5 point underdog in this Liberty Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Memphis has looked really good this season with their 9-3 record overall and if they didn't lose their game against Tulane earlier this season, they would have been in the AAC Championship too. Meanwhile, Iowa State has looked a lot better than expected with their 7-5 record overall, especially when they had a big scandal right before the season started. They powered through the year though and were really good in the Big 12 with their 6-3 conference record. As good as Iowa State has looked in their games lately, this is still too many points for them to cover considering how they have been blowing out a lot of bad teams this season but have struggled more against better teams which Memphis is as one of the best teams in the AAC this year. Memphis also has a big advantage here since this game is supposed to be at a neutral site but they are actually playing this game in their home stadium where this particular bowl game is played. They are going to have the home crowd on their side in this game and they also have another advantage with less key players entering the transfer portal after the great season they had while Iowa State has a much longer list. Memphis is live to win this game outright in their home stadium but they will definitely keep the game within a touchdown if they don't win. The best way to place a bet here is on Memphis to cover the spread in this game. 

Memphis Iowa State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, December 29, 2023 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Memphis 31 Iowa State 28.

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Memphis Tigers: 8-1 ATS after 4 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. 28-20 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. 22-13 UNDER as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. 16-7 UNDER after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.

Iowa State Cyclones: 4-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 3-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 4-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 11-2 UNDER in a bowl game. 23-14 UNDER in all games. 16-6 UNDER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.

Memphis Tigers:  K. Drake (WR) Ques Fri - Undisclosed.

Iowa State Cyclones:  None.

"Obviously it's an honor and a privilege for us. Our football program and our university are so appreciative of the invite and to be able play in our home stadium. We're excited about the matchup. Obviously, we know what Iowa State brings to the table. Big 12 team that's won a lot of football games." - Ryan Silverfield on his team playing against ISU in the Liberty Bowl.

“Kids just responded, and that's been the makeup of this program. It takes kids believing in each other and it takes a coaching staff believing in each other, and that's what makes this really fun tonight.” - Matt Campbell after his team’s win against KSU in their last game of the college football regular season.

WR Taylor, Roc 

WR Scates, Joseph 

WR Blankumsee, Demeer 

TE Landphere, Anthony 

QB Henigan, Seth 

RB Watson, Blake

WR Higgins, Jayden 

WR Bitter, Aidan 

WR Noel, Jaylin 

TE Dean, Easton 

TE Klotz, Stevo 

QB Becht, Rocco 

RB Sama III, Abu 

Passing: S. Henigan (3516)

Rushing: B. Watson (1045)

Receiving: R. Taylor (981)

Touchdowns: B. Watson (17) 

Passing: R. Becht (2674)

Rushing: A. Sama III (610)

Receiving: J. Higgins (769)

Touchdowns: J. Noel (6)

Coaches:

Memphis Tigers: Ryan Silverfield (4th season)

Iowa State Cyclones: Matt Campbell (8th season)