Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Friday, May 13th, 2022 

Venue:   Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Warriors -8.5; O/U 217.5

Fanduel:  Warriors -8.5; O/U 217.5

BetMGM: Warriors -8.5; O/U 217.5

Grizzlies: 56-26, 2nd place Western Conference

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference

It’s not a secret.  In both Conferences’ NBA Playoff 2nd round series between the 2nd and 3rd place finishers… the 3rd place team is up on the 2nd place team 3-2 with a potential elimination game looming.  In this Western Conference matchup the 3rd place Warriors seem to be likely to move on… except they massively dropped Game 5 134-95 to the Memphis Grizzlies without star PG Ja Morant.  Everyone keeps repeating that the Grizzlies were better without Ja than with him statistically this season…. As if it was anything but luck that causes a young great team to win without their star… or is it?  The Golden State Warriors have so many stars on their team that they are practically a constellation on their own.  Still the Warriors folded like a cheap shirt in front of the Grizzlies’ home crowd.  So the Great betting opportunity is about who will win in San Francisco in Game 6… If the Grizzlies pull it off they will get to come home for a Game 7… If the Warriors get the win they will simply move on to the Western Conference Finals.  All of that is nice… but the real question is about the 8.5 point spread in the Warriors favor.  It seems unlikely that the Grizzlies won’t at least cover, since 4 of the last 5 games would not have covered that spread for the Warriors.  

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 6 of their last 10 playoff games.  They have gone 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  All hope is lost for the Grizzlies because their all-star PG and potential MVP candidate next season is out with a “deep bone bruise”, and will not return until next season.  In true Grizzlies fashion they promptly won the first full game against the Warriors without Ja Morant, 134-95.  That is insane.  It also means that before we break down the numbers we have to acknowledge that the Warriors quit once they were down early.  The Grizzlies got 21 points from Jaren Jackson Jr, 21 points from SG Desmond Bane, and 21 points from PG Tre Jones. SF Dillon Brooks, SF Ziaire Williams, and SG De’Anthony Melton all hit small double figures as well… C Steven Adams went from not playing in the first 8 games of the playoffs to 7 points and 13 rebounds in 21 minutes during the last win… Adams will obviously be in a trade package going out with one of either De’Anthony Melton or Dillon Brooks in the offseason.  The team will want to get younger and le3ss expensive at center since they now have multiple guards and small forwards that are capable of dropping big games.

The Golden State Warriors have won 7 of their last 10 playoff games (which is all their playoff games).  They went 4-6 ATS during that stretch.  The Warriors have beaten Memphis but lost ATS during this series alone.  In the loss, substitute Head coach Mike Brown waived the white towel early and often.  Brown is filling in for Steve Kerr, who tested positive for Covid-19.  No Warrior reached 20 points… and no Warriors reached more than 25 minutes.  Super young SG Jonathan Kuminga stunk up the joint shooting 0-5 from the 3-point line.  SG Klay Thompson led the Warriors in points with 19 and in minutes with 25:21.  Klay also led the Warriors in negative +/- .  He was a shocking -45.  The big shocker was that cold-blooded assassin and big time dirty player SG Jordan Poole only had 3 points and 1 rebound in 20 minutes of play.  He may have been feeling a little shy on the court with every Memphis fan raining their “special accolades” down on him.  The Takeaway is that.. Every single Warrior had a bad game.  They all agreed to quit and wait until they were back at home to give the close-out the old college try.   Quitting is the worst thing for us Gamblers to see… we have to go into the next game wondering if the Warriors numbers and shooting percentages can be trusted.  The math says they can.  We will see.

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Memphis is 62-31 on the season, but 59-33-1 ATS.  They have logged 48 Overs, 44 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 28-18 in road games.

The Warriors are 59-32 on the season, but 45-43-4 ATS.  They have notched 42 Overs, 48 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 35-10 in home games.

The Grizzlies are 2nd in scoring with 115.6 ppg, 1st in rebounds with 49.2 per game, and 5th in AST/TO ratio with 2.0.  On defense they rank 12th while holding opponents to 109.9 ppg.  They are also 1st in blocked shots thanks to JJJ and his active arms.

The Warriors are 15th in scoring with 111.0 ppg, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while allowing 105.5 ppg from opponents. 

 

Our prediction for Friday, May 13th is…..  Grizzlies 118 - Warriors 117.

I’m taking the Grizzlies because I get 8.5 points to hang on to.  The Warriors may very well win the game but they have failed to cover twice when they have.  Also it would be fun to see these two teams get to a Game 7.  Either way I’m taking my points.

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Memphis is 58-33 ATS in all games this season.

Memphis is 3-12 ATS when facing elimination in the playoffs.

The Warriors are 61-36 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite since 1996.

The Warriors are 1-7 ATS after a road loss by 10 points or more as a favorite the last 3 seasons.

Grizzlies: PG Ja Morant (knee) Out 

Warriors: PG Gary Payton II (elbow) Out ** SF Otto Porter Jr (foot) Quest

Grizzlies: PF Jaren Jackson Jr, SF Dillon Brooks, C Steven Adams, PG Tyus Jones, SG Desmond Bane

Warriors: SF Klay Thompson,. Sg Jordan Poole, C Draymond Green, PG Stephen Curry, PF Andrew Wiggins

Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins

Warriors: Steve “I have all the rings” Kerr