May Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

With most MLB starters reaching 10 or more starts in the 2026 season, the data to work with is becoming more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in May with numbers that are not likely to hold up over time. These four National League starters may be worth avoiding or considering fading in upcoming starting efforts.  

Braxton Ashcraft – Pittsburgh Pirates

2018 2nd Round draft pick Braxton Ashcraft has taken a bit more time to develop than some of his rotation mates in Pittsburgh but Ashcraft has fit right in with Paul Skenes and company posting a 2.75 ERA in 11 starts so far in 2026. Ashcraft made five terrific starts in a row to start the season with two or fewer earned runs allowed in each outing while pitching at least five innings. Since April 28, he is 3-1 in decisions, but his FIP is 3.72 and his strikeout rate has fallen. He has posted a nearly 85 percent strand rate in that span for some good fortune. Ashcraft has excellent road splits this season and he has enjoyed a few favorable venue road starts in early season action including one of his best starts coming in San Francisco. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Los Angeles Dodgers

A World Series hero last season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is being regarded and valued as one of MLB’s best starters and with a loaded lineup behind him he will face premium pricing in every start. Yamamoto turned in a historically great postseason in 2025, getting three wins including a complete game in Game 2, plus closing out Game 7 out of the bullpen. He had a good regular season in 2025 and finished third in the NL Cy Young vote, but he isn’t pitching at that level so far in 2026. His K/9 has fallen from 10.4 to 8.3 while he has been more at risk for allowing home runs. Yamamoto has a 3.76 FIP this season, a perfectly acceptable and above average mark, but with the it may not sync with the pricing and expectations that Yamamoto demands next to his 3.09 ERA. Yamamoto is only 4-4 in decisions, and the Dodgers are just 6-4 in his 10 starts, yet his favorite pricing in his last start was past -400. 

Spencer Strider – Atlanta Braves

With a 3-0 record and a 3.46 ERA for the first place Braves, Spencer Strider will start to face the steeper valuation that he earned with great results in 2022 and 2023 for the Braves before requiring surgery in 2024. It is only a five start sample as Strider didn’t start his season until May 3, but his FIP of 5.35 against his 3.46 ERA represents a massive disparity. Strider can still generate great strikeout counts with an 11.1 K/9 so far this season but he has also allowed six home runs in 26 innings and his numbers so far are built a .180 BABIP that won’t be sustainable. Strider has also stranded nearly 93 percent of his baserunners and there have been a lot of baserunners with his 5.2 BB/9 so far this season. Strider draws some recognition from his 4th place finish in the 2023 NL Cy Young race but he has not proven consistently capable since that season despite the pricing he is sure to command in the upcoming weeks if the Braves continue to pace the National League. 

Randy Vasquez – San Diego Padres

Now with 57 starts for the Padres since 2024. Randy Vasquez has been a regular option in the rotation. Vasquez had a 5.2 K/9 last season but so far in 2026 his strikeout rate has climbed while his walk rate has fallen. Vasquez has an impressive 3.28 ERA in 11 starts and just over 60 innings of work but his FIP is 4.24 is nearly a full run higher than his ERA. Vasquez doesn’t get a great percentage of groundballs and his home run rate has been consistent in his career. The difference so far this season for Vasquez improving his results has been a strand rate at nearly 84 percent, which is significantly higher than he had the past two seasons for San Diego. Almost 60 percent of his innings have been in favorable conditions at Petco Park so far this season while he has faced a losing team in all four of his road starts so far this season. Vasquez had a nice start to the season but over his last six starts his FIP is 5.82, while his K/9 has fallen dramatically to just 4.8 since late April. Look for the rest of the 2026 season to push Vasquez to being the back-of-the-rotation below-average starter of the past two seasons.