by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Thursday, Nov 25, 2021
Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 27, 2021
Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Where to Watch: BSAZ
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UMass +6.5, NM State -6.5; Over/Under: 59 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UMass +6.5, NM State -6.5; Over/Under: 59.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UMass +6.5, NM State -6.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
Massachusetts Minutemen: 1-10 (5th place, FBS Independents)
New Mexico State Aggies: 1-10 (6th place, FBS Independents)
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Massachusetts Minutemen vs New Mexico State Aggies Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Massachusetts Minutemen: lost on the road on Nov. 20 against the Army Black Knights 33-17.
New Mexico State Aggies: lost on the road on Nov. 20 against the Kentucky Wildcats 56-16.
Massachusetts Minutemen Analysis
UMass is coming into this game with a 1-10 record overall and they are 0-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They have just 1 win all season and are coming into this one on a 5 game losing streak after another loss in their last game. Garrett Dzuro did not play well in that game as he completed 7/13 passes for 78 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Ellis Merriweather had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 110 yards on 187 carries while Josiah Johnson ran in 1 TD on the ground. Tray Pettaway led the receivers with 38 yards on 1 reception while Onuma Dieke led the team in receptions with 2 for 16 yards in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. Jacob Orlando caught the only touchdown pass in that one. Da'Shon Ross led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Gerrell Johnson recorded the only sack in that game with 1 while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 169 points in their 11 games this season averaging 15.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 473 points against them allowing 43 PPG. Their offense is averaging 291.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 472 YPG.
New Mexico State Aggies Analysis
New Mexico State is coming into this game with a 1-10 record overall and they are 1-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have just 1 win all season and are coming into this one on a 7 game losing streak after another loss in their last game. Jonah Johnson really struggled in that game as he completed 16/35 passes for 181 yards and 1 interception. Juwuan Price led the team in rushing with 51 yards on 11 carries. Justice Powers led the receivers with 41 yards on 1 reception while Alex Escobar led the team in receptions with 3 for 24 yards in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. D.J. McCullough led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Trevor Brohard recorded the only sack in that game with 1 while Jeremiah Dervil came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 227 points in their 11 games this season averaging 20.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 458 points against them allowing 41.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 347.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 496.7 YPG.
Massachusetts vs New Mexico State Prediction
UMass is coming into this game as a 6.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams have been awful all season and neither team should be favored by this many points with the way they have been playing. This game could go either way and the winner will be whoever can make the least amount of mistakes and take care of the ball. This should be a close game so the best bet to place in this game is on UMass to cover the spread here.
Massachusetts New Mexico State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 27, 2021 (3:00 pm ET start time) is NM State 30 UMass 27.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Massachusetts Minutemen: 60-49 O/U in all games. 20-16 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 52-36 ATS as an underdog. 31-22 O/U as a road underdog. 33-25 O/U in road games.
New Mexico State Aggies: 102-90 O/U in all games. 44-30 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 75-68 O/U when playing with 6 or less days rest. 54-37 O/U after playing a non-conference game.
Key Injuries
Massachusetts Minutemen: J. Roberts (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. T. Lytle (QB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. R. Marks III (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury.
New Mexico State Aggies: D. Gicinto (WR) out for season - Wrist injury.
Notable Quotes
"I am honored to return to Amherst and lead the football program at the University of Massachusetts again. I promise to work tirelessly to make this program into something that our players, alumni and fans can be proud of. My focus will also be to develop our student-athletes so they can play at an elite level and achieve success, which requires building great relationships and having a tremendous work ethic. I can't wait to get back to the Commonwealth and get to work." Don Brown on returning to UMass to be the defensive coordinator.
"Today was the same effort that we've seen all season. Our players are fighting as hard as they can and giving great effort. They're a great group of kids and have great spirit about them. We're just not quite talented enough yet coming off last season." - Doug Martin on his team’s loss against Kentucky in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Massachusetts Minutemen
WR Rico Arnold
WR Dieke, Onuma
WR Jermaine Johnson Jr.
TE Johnson, Josiah
QB Olson, Brady
RB Merriweather, Ellis
New Mexico State Aggies
WR Wyatt, Jared
WR Garcia-Castaneda, Isaiah
WR Johnson III, PJ
TE Whitford, Thomaz
QB Johnson, Jonah
RB Price, Juwaun
Statistical Leaders
Massachusetts Minutemen
Passing: B. Olson (1153)
Rushing: E. Merriweather (968)
Receiving: R. Arnold (384)
Touchdowns: J. Johnson (5)
New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: J. Johnson (2282)
Rushing: J. Price (514)
Receiving: J. Wyatt (503)
Touchdowns: J. Price (6)
Coaches:
Massachusetts Minutemen: Alex Miller (Interim)
New Mexico State Aggies: Doug Martin (9th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
