by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022
NCAA Tournament - 1st Round
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
Where to watch: TBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: North Carolina -3.5
BetMGM: North Carolina -3.5
Caesars: North Carolina -3.5
Season record
Marquette: 19-12
North Carolina: 24-9
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Marquette - North Carolina preview and analysis
Marquette analysis
I was very shocked to find the Marquette Golden Eagles in the NCAA Tournament. I'm not sure exactly, because I know the Big East was a very good conference this season. Good enough for a 19-win team as a No. 9 seed? That's where I'm a little confused.
Marquette only lasted until the quarterfinals in the Big East Tournament, losing 74-63 to Creighton almost a week ago. Darryl Morsell led them with 18 points, but the Golden Eagles just ran out of gas in the second half getting outscored 45-37.
Marquette is a very streaky group. They defeated Villanova twice this season, but lost to Creighton three times. The Bluejays were a far better team than Marquette this season and somehow both ended up as nine seeds. I can't even take the Villanova wins seriously due to the fact Villanova wasn't that great overall despite making as deep a run as they did.
The Golden Eagles went 6-6 against top-25 teams this year but they just haven't looked like the type of team that would be as successful this season. It was a weird year for them and I think they're a team on the rise in the future, but I can't take them too seriously.
Unless something changes in this kind of game, I can't see Marquette making a play in this game. The funny thing is I don't even trust their opponent in this kind of matchup because college basketball is just weird.
North Carolina analysis
So, good news if you're the North Carolina Tar Heels. There's no shame in losing to the ACC Champions. Funny enough, not associating the Duke Blue Devils as the conference champs might be the most hilarious thing to not come out of that group.
Alas, it was North Carolina losing to the Virginia Tech Hokies and not Duke to throw things to haywire. But the strong end to the season, and going 15-5 in conference play, was good enough to get the Tar Heels back to the tournament, especially in the first season of the post-Roy Williams era.
The biggest problem with North Carolina is its lack of depth on the bench. That hurt the Heels in the loss to Virginia Tech, with four starters scoring in double figures led by Armando Bacot's team-high 19 points on an impressive 9 of 10 shooting. The forward added 14 rebounds in the loss.
Three other starters scored 10 points each, but the bench combined to shoot 2 of 8; add in Leaky Black's 4 points on 2 of 5 shooting, and this group combined to go 4 of 13. Somehow, this kind of team was able to make a run late and get into the field of 68.
It might need to come down to Bacot given how Caleb Love shot just 3 of 17 from the floor and 2 of 10 from 3-point range. Either give Bacot the ball and get out of his way, or someone else is going to need to step up in a big way to make something happen.
Prediction
I don't trust either of these teams. The winner is going to get wiped off the floor by Baylor, and will put a resounding end to their season. At the end of the day, I like Hubert Davis' group to find a way to get the win. I feel like if Marquette actually put the results to good use this season and did more than beating Villanova, they'd be a much better pick. I like the way North Carolina matches up with the Golden Eagles and I'll take the 8 to beat the 9. North Carolina by 10
Betting trends
Marquette is 11-5 ATS as an underdog this season.
North Carolina is 12-11 ATS as a favorite this season.
The over is 11-3 this season after North Carolina plays two games as a favorite.
Projected starting lineup
Marquette:
PG: Tyler Kolek
SG: Darryl Morsell
SF: Justin Lewis
PF: Olivier Maxence-Prosper
C: Kur Kuath
North Carolina:
PG: R.J. Davis
SG: Caleb Love
SF: Leaky Black
PF: Brady Manek
C: Armando Bacot
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
