by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Jan 21, 2022
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Venue: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Check back later
BetMGM: Check back later
Caesars: Check back later
Season record
No. 13 LSU: 15-3 (3-3 SEC)
No. 24 Tennessee: 12-5 (3-3 SEC)
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LSU - Tennessee preview, analysis and prediction
Alright, so the LSU Tigers are beatable and things don’t look fun in Baton Rouge right now.
But things aren’t fun in Knoxville either for the Tennessee Volunteers, turning Saturday’s matchup in Knoxville into cavalcade of whoopie cushions.
I can’t for the life of me go back on LSU with how far I’ve been on them now. Even though LSU has now dropped both of its last two games against Arkansas and Alabama, I still firmly believe that LSU's defense is one of the best in the conference if not the entire conference.
LSU's three-point loss to Alabama on Wednesday night was the cap in a very weird week for the Tigers. Despite Tari Eason Scoring a game high 26 points on 9 of 13 shooting, LSU ran out of gas in the second half against an Alabama team that stood toe to toe with LSU for the majority of the night.
Even though LSU trailed by eight points with 1:08 remaining, and nearly pulled off the comeback, Alabama’s homecourt advantage has proven to be very difficult to play against. Even the Crimson Tide themselves, have proven to be very formidable as an opponent this year despite their 12-6 record.
"When we're full strength and we get everybody healthy, we're going to be tough," LSU coach Will Wade said. "To fight like that and play like that under the circumstances we had tonight, very impressed."
The Tigers did not have point guard Xavier Pinson for the game and later lost leading rebounder Darius Days to an ankle injury.
Losing Days to that injury really hampered LSU's ability to stop Alabama in the post. If Days returns to the lineup for Saturday's game against a very questionable Tennessee team, this will have a much different outcome than what the last two games have suggested.
Nevertheless, the loss to Alabama has hindered LSU's chances at winning the regular season conference championship. The top of the SEC is now completely stacked with the likes of Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. LSU's three losses in conference play have put the Tigers toward the middle of the pack.
That’s why this matchup against Tennessee now has more weight than it did a week or two ago. Tennessee is likely going to be out of the top 25 poll once next week happens. The 28 point loss to Kentucky on the road was probably the worst possible outcome for Tennessee in terms of figuring out if they are actually a legit team in the SEC.
The Volunteers did rebound on Tuesday in a 68-60 road victory at Vanderbilt to give them their 12th win of the season, but it was not that impressive of a victory given Vanderbilt struggles to begin the season. It took Tennessee scoring the final eight points of the game in the final minute to knock off a struggling Vanderbilt team despite shooting the 33% from the field in the victory.
"They showed the grit that we needed," Tennessee coach Rick Barnes said. "It was a total team win, and I thought our defense was really good from start to finish against a team, they run terrific offense. They do a lot of really good things and the fact we were able to defend them."
LSU has relied on its defense for the majority of this season, and rightfully so. In terms of the books however, LSU is 14-4 against the spread this season but the under has cashed in 15 of 18 games. While LSU has been a monster at home going 10-1, they've only played four away games and have split both of them.
My thoughts for picking LSU are not particularly against what Tennessee hasn't done but just how much I believe in LSU to win this game. I do not expect the tigers to fall on their faces again for a little bit given the schedule that is ahead of them with Texas A&M twice and Kentucky one more time down the road. Give me LSU in a very comfortable victory. LSU by 18
Betting trends
LSU is 8-16 straight up as an underdog the past three seasons.
LSU is 43-34 ATS in all games the past three seasons.
LSU is 24-11 ATS off an under in its past 35, and 11-3 this season.
Tennessee is 6-3 ATS at home this season, 20-22 the past three.
Projected starting lineup
LSU:
PG: Eric Gaines
SG: Brandon Murray
SF: Mwani Wilkinson
PF: Darius Days
C: Efton Reid
SF: Mwani Wilkinson
PF: Darius Days
C: Efton Reid
Tennessee:
PG: Kennedy Chandler
SG: Santiago Vescovi
SF: Josiah James
PF: Oliver Nkamhoua
C: John Fulkerson
SF: Josiah James
PF: Oliver Nkamhoua
C: John Fulkerson
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
