LSU Tigers vs. Purdue Boilermakers: Citrus Bowl Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 1/2/2023

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Venue: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL

Where to watch: ABC

DraftKings: LSU -14.5; LSU -580, Purdue +440; O/U 56

FanDuel: LSU -14.5; LSU -600, Purdue +430; O/U 55.5

BetMGM: LSU -14.5; LSU -600, Purdue +425; O/U 56.5

Caesars: LSU -14.5; LSU -588, Purdue +430; O/U 56

No. 17 LSU: 9-4

Purdue: 8-5

I feel like this is more of a reward for the Purdue Boilermakers to have a bowl game this late into the campaign rather than it be for the LSU tigers after an abysmal end to their season. LSU being in the citrus bowl is probably the best worst outcome they could have gotten after losing out on a chance at the College Football Playoff with their loss to Texas A&M and the thrashing they received against Georgia in the SEC championship game.

 

But with LSU laying 14.5 you can see why the books have so much confidence in LSU against the Purdue team that snuck into the big 10 championship only to get run over by Michigan. And I don't want to put this on the LSU fighting Brian Kelly's southern accents, but that was an abysmal finish to the regular season for LSU. For a team that did everything humanly possible to create hell in the SEC, too late two eggs like that was about as abysmal of a situation as you could have asked for.

 

But LSU is still the far talented team going into this matchup. They have the better quarterback in Jayden Daniels, who is returning next year, and they have the overall better talent than Purdue. Keep in mind that Purdue barely snuck in to the big 10 championship. It was about getting in by default at that point. Purdue was not going to do anything against Michigan, although they kept it close in the first half before michigan's talent ultimately pulled away in the second-half.

 

But this is considered a consolation prize for Purdue. The fact that they made it this far, and now they have a punchers chance against an LSU team that you would think is falling off after losing those last two games, but after a number of improbable performances over the course of the season, LSU should have had a better chance than what it was given. Purdue just doesn't have that. And it will help next year when Drew Brees comes to join the coaching staff and eventually may become the head coach. That would be something hilarious, but for this time around I don't expect Purdue to do much.

 

LSU has failed to cover in three of its last four after covering the previous three. The difference this time around is that LSU was favored in three of those four games. The only one they weren't was as a 17 point underdog against Georgia in which they failed to cover by three. The only other win that they covered in was the 41-10 victory over UAB in which they were 15 point favorites and easily covered by 16. So the track record of LSU covering as a double digit favorite, especially as of late is not very good. But in terms of overall talent and overall star power within this group, there's no doubt that LSU is 10 times better than Purdue.

 

The over has cashed for LSU in their last four bowl games and has gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall. The over has also gone over for Purdue in their last six bowl games, but I don't expect the Purdue offense to go stride for stride against LSU in this one. LSU 37, Purdue 20

LSU is 68-46 ATS after failing to cover in 2 of the last 3 since 1992.

LSU is 29-15 ATS on the road off a conference loss since 1992.

LSU is 14-3 ATS on the road after being outrushed by 125 yards or more in the last game since 1992.

Passing: Jayden Daniels – 2,774 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT

Rushing: Jayden Daniels – 818 yards, 11 TD

Receiving: Malik Nabers – 854 yards, 2 TD

Passing: Aidan O’Connell – 3,490 yards, 22 TD, 13 INT

Rushing: Devin Mockobee – 920 yards, 9 TD

Receiving: Charlie Jones – 1,361 yards, 12 TD