LSU Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/12/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Venue:  Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  LSU +8.5, MS State -8.5; Over/Under:  147.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  LSU +8.5, MS State -8.5; Over/Under:  147.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  LSU +8.5, MS State -8.5; Over/Under:  147.5 points

LSU Tigers:  14-17 (3-15) (15th place, SEC)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  20-11 (8-10) (10th place, SEC)

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LSU Tigers:  0-5  last 5

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  1-4  last 5

LSU is entering this game with a 14-17 record overall, a 3-15 record in conference games, and they are 1-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Texas A&M Aggies in their last game. Jordan Sears led the team in points in that game with 21 while Mike Williams III was next on the team with 8. Dji Bailey and Jordan Sears each led the team in assists with 2 in that game while Cam Carter led the team in rebounds with 5. They were 30% from the field, 26.9% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 74.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 73 PPG against them. LSU has an ATS record of 13-17-1 this season and their O/U record is 14-16-1.

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 20-11 record overall, an 8-10 conference record, and they are 4-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Arkansas Razorbacks in their last game. Claudell Harris Jr. led the team in points in that game with 18 while Josh Hubbard was next on the team with 17. Cameron Matthews and Josh Hubbard each led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Cameron Matthews and KeShawn Murphy each led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 43.8% from the field, 37.5% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 74.2 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 14-17 this season and their O/U record is 18-12-1.

The current betting odds have Mississippi State listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Mississippi State has looked good in their games this season with their 20-11 record overall, but their 8-10 conference record has them in the bottom half of the SEC. They had a great start to the season though and are 4-1 in their neutral site games. Meanwhile, LSU has looked terrible in their games this season with their 14-17 record overall and their 3-15 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the SEC. They don't have as much experience in these neutral site games this season either, and they are 1-2 in the 3 neutral site games they have played. They haven't looked good lately either as they come into this tournament with 5 losses in a row, but this is also how they have performed for most of the season. Their only way into the NCAA Tournament is by winning this SEC Tournament, but they really have no shot to do anything. Mississippi State hasn't looked great lately either as they are 1-4 in their last 5 games and have lost 2 games in a row now, but this is also a team that was ranked in the top 25 at one point in the season and they have shown flashes of a good team throughout the season. Mississippi State is getting LSU at the perfect time as they need a feel good win to get some momentum back, and this is a team they should have no issues leaving in the dust as they already beat them by double digits this season in March. The best way to place a bet here is on Mississippi State to cover the spread in this game. 

LSU Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Wednesday, March 12, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is MS State 84 LSU 68.

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LSU Tigers: 17-39 ATS as an underdog. 14-26 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 13-25 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 7-3 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 14-3 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 9-4 UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 21-15 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. 4-1 ATS on the road or at a neutral site when playing against a team with a losing record. 16-6 UNDER in all neutral court games. 13-3 UNDER in all tournament games. 8-2 UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5.

LSU Tigers:  C. Chest (F) Questionable - Foot. V. Miller (G) Questionable - Lower Leg. T. Green (F) Out - Academics. J. Reed (F) Out - Knee. T. Ward (G) Out - Not Injury Related.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  K. Clary (G) Out - Leg.

“A&M really overwhelmed us on the offensive glass during that stretch. The way we struggled to shoot in the second half made it incredibly difficult on us to get any closer.” - Matt McMahon after his team’s loss against Texas A&M in their last game of the regular season. 

“I would have told you that ball was going in when it left his hand. It was the perfect angle and he used the backboard, and I’m like, ‘It’s in.’ I just feel awful for our team. These kids, on the road, obviously a tough place to play, had some struggles and got ourselves down pretty good, and they found a way to stick together and give themselves a chance to win the game.” - Chris Jans after his team’s loss against Arkansas in their last game of the regular season.

D. Bailey 

C. Carter 

C. Chest 

D. Collins 

J. Sears

C. Harris 

J. Hubbard 

C. Matthews 

R. Melendez 

M. Nwoko

PPG: C. Carter (16.5)

APG: C. Carter (2.5)

Reb/G: C. Chest (6.6)

PPG: J. Hubbard (18.3)

APG: C. Matthews (3.7)

Reb/G: K. Murphy (7.5)

Coaches:

LSU Tigers: Matt McMahon (3rd season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (3rd season)