LSU Tigers vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/27/2025

Game Time: 9:15 pm ET, Saturday, December 27, 2025

Venue:  NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  LSU +3, Houston -3; Over/Under:  41.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  LSU +3, Houston -3; Over/Under:  41.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  LSU +3, Houston -3; Over/Under:  41.5 points

LSU Tigers:  7-5 (3-5) (10th place, SEC)

Houston Cougars:  9-3 (6-3) (4th place, Big 12)

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LSU Tigers:  lost their last game on the road against the Oklahoma Sooners 17-13.

Houston Cougars:  won their last game on the road against the Baylor Bears 31-24.

LSU is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 3-5 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Oklahoma 17-13. Michael Van Buren Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 14/25 passes for 96 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Caden Durham led the team in rushing yards with 42. Zavion Thomas led the receivers with 30 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Davhon Keys led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Harold Perkins Jr., A.J. Haulcy, and DJ Pickett each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Houston is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 6-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 6-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Baylor 31-24. Conner Weigman was the starting QB and he completed 21/31 passes for 201 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Conner Weigman led the team in rushing yards with 121 and 2 TDs. Amare Thomas led the receivers with 97 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Kentrell Webb led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Brandon Mack II led the defense in sacks with 1. Marc Stampley II came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Houston listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Houston has looked really good in their games this season with their 9-3 record overall and their 6-3 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big 12. They haven't played in any neutral site games this year so this will be their first, playing in the Texas Bowl. Meanwhile, LSU has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall, but their 3-5 conference record had them in the bottom half of the SEC. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season either. LSU was supposed to have a great year with all of the talent they had, and even started with a road win over what was supposed to be a really good Clemson team. They did have a really good defense, but their offense was terrible to start the year and that ended up being their biggest issue all season. They struggled to put up points against bad defenses and it eventually led to some bad losses in the SEC which got Brian Kelly fired. LSU does have a really bright future now with the hiring of Lane Kiffin, but that isn't going to help them in this game as he is focused on building this team for next year. LSU really isn't in a great situation here with the coaches and the players available for this game. Houston ended the regular season with a 31-24 win over Baylor and they have a lot of momentum on their side from a great season in Fritz' 2nd year as head coach. They also had a really good defense that didn't give up a lot of points this year, but their offense has also looked a lot better. Houston isn't playing this game at home, but they are going to have a big home advantage with the game being in the local NFL stadium. LSU fell apart this year and this isn't a game that they are focused on while Houston ended the year playing well and will use this game to build on next season too. The best way to place a bet here is on Houston to cover the spread in this game. 

LSU Houston Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 27, 2025 (9:15 pm ET start time) is Houston 30 LSU 14.

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LSU Tigers: 1-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 3-6 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 3-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 6-3 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival. 3-0 UNDER after scoring 14 points or less last game.

Houston Cougars: 6-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 6-3 ATS in non-conference games. 4-1 ATS in games played on a grass field. 22-14 UNDER in all lined games. 6-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3. 

LSU Tigers:  M. Delane (CB) Out - Undisclosed. A. Anderson (WR) Doubtful - Undisclosed. G. Nussmeier (QB) Out - Undisclosed. O. Williams (OT) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Moore (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Anderson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Reliford (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Lindsey (RB) Out - Suspension.

Houston Cougars:  J. Ridgle (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Hautau (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Laufau (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Cormier (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. Q. Lee (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. West (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Sterling (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Williams (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Johnson (WR) Out - Undisclosed. D. Ndukwe (OG) Out - Leg. R. Sanford II (RB) Out - Undisclosed.

“I am incredibly honored to have the opportunity to lead the storied LSU Football program. From national championships to iconic players, LSU is synonymous with excellence and is among the most powerful brands in all of sports. I’m grateful to President Rousse, Verge Ausberry and LSU’s leadership for placing their faith in me to lead this program. Our staff will recruit the very best student-athletes in the country – starting at home in the state of Louisiana – and will work tirelessly every day to bring championships that the LSU fans deserve. Geaux Tigers!” - Lane Kiffin on being hired as the new head coach for next season.

“I've had very few problems, I’m very disciplined and structured in what we do, and I don’t put up with crap. These kids have just been awesome to work with every day. I’m proud of my coaches for finding kids with character." - Willie Fritz on his team this season.

WR Thomas, Zavion

WR Brown, Barion

WR Parker, Kyle

TE Green, Trey'Dez

QB Van Buren Jr., Michael 

RB Berry, Harlem

WR Young, Koby

WR Broussard III, Harvey

WR Thomas, Amare

TE Koziol, Tanner

QB Weigman, Conner

RB Connors, Dean

Passing: Garrett Nussmeier (1,927)

Rushing: Caden Durham (505)

Receiving: Barion Brown (495)

Touchdowns: Trey'Dez Green (5)

Passing: Conner Weigman (2,475)

Rushing: Dean Connors (851)

Receiving: Amare Thomas (906)

Touchdowns: Conner Weigman (11)

Coaches:

LSU Tigers: Frank Wilson (Interim)

Houston Cougars: Willie Fritz (2nd season)