LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/1/2022

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

Where to watch: ESPN

DraftKings: LSU -8

FanDuel: LSU -8.5

BetMGM: LSU -8.5

Caesars: LSU -8

LSU: 3-1 (1-0 SEC)

Auburn: 3-1 (1-0 SEC)

LSU: won 38-0 vs. New Mexico

Auburn: won 17-14 (OT) vs. Missouri

The LSU Tigers appear to have figured things out. After that rough loss to open the year against the Florida State Seminoles because kickers can’t have anything nice their way ever, the fighting Brian Kelly Southern Accents have reeled off three straight wins and are coming off a 38-0 win over the New Mexico Lobos last week. Not to say that New Mexico is an impressive win because most Mountain West teams aren’t seen that way, but at least LSU is winning games when it didn’t seem possible after that FSU flop. The Tigers do have a win over Mississippi State so not all is lost. And at the very least, the Tigers looked like the more dominant team against the Lobos. Quarterback Jayden Daniels threw for 279 yards, and the Tigers ran all over the Lobos in total yards by the tune of 633-88.

"Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a habit," LSU head coach Brian Kelly said. "Three wins in a row. Our guys are building good habits."

I don’t know where in the world we’re getting these coachisms from this guy, but man he’s trying really hard to be entertaining. But this is absolutely going to be the toughest game LSU has played to this point. The Mississippi State game was at home, and despite needing a comeback to win that one, they were able to rely on the defense late to get the victory. LSU has had a rough go the last few years sitting at just 14-13 in their last 27 games, but have been solid as a favorite by winning 10 of their last 16 straight up. Not that they’ve been a reliable bunch to go with as of late, but maybe Kelly’s message is finally working.

The Auburn Tigers, meanwhile, are about to be put on the side of a milk carton. Where are they? Do they still exist? Will they ever be found? Because no, I can’t take this 3-1 team seriously because of who they’ve beaten and who they’ve lost to. Auburn is coming off a 17-14 overtime victory at home against Missouri. Yes, just 17 points against Mizzou, at home, in overtime, to win that game. This is a week after the Tigers got thrashed at home against Penn State. And if it weren’t for the fact Mizzou fumbled at the goal line, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. We’d be discussing how Auburn is 2-2 and a gigantic disappointment. Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford threw for 127 yards and ran for 46, along with a rushing touchdown, but somehow won the game with Auburn totaling 217 yards of offense.

“I think everybody in that locker room is exhausted, in a good way,” Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin said. “I told our players I’m proud of them. They did what they needed to do to win the football game.”

You ever know when coaches are flat out lying? This is certainly one of those instances. Auburn is not the team that we all knew and loved once upon a time. They’ve beaten the likes of San Jose State and Mercer, for crying out loud. Getting a 3-point win against Missouri should not be something this program should be proud of and it’s absolutely nothing that Auburn should be able to build off of heading into a game where they might get thrashed at home again. This is a fifth consecutive home game for Auburn and somehow they’re 3-1. Two of those wins were by one score. None of this is good for the program.

Auburn is 3-10 straight up in its last 13 as an underdog, all while just 4-9 against the spread. They’ve been bad with their backs up against the wall. The under is also 8-1 in their last nine following a win against a conference opponent. If this turns to defense, you really think Auburn should be trusted? Not in this dojo.

The Fighting Brian Kelly Southern Accents are going to luck their way to a 4-1 start and might be creeping closer to a top-25 rank. One way to do that would be a dominant victory, and I think this is what happens here. LSU by 21

LSU is 33-29 ATS as a road favorite since 1992.

LSU is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 conference games.

Auburn is 23-20 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.

The under is 8-2 in the last 10 with Auburn off a home win.

Passing: Jayden Daniels -- 835 yards, 6 TD

Rushing: Jayden Daniels -- 262 yards, 2 TD

Receiving: Malik Nabers -- 264 yards, 1 TD

Passing: T.J. Finley -- 431 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT

Rushing: Tank Bigsby -- 281 yards, 4 TD

Receiving: Ja'Varrius Johnson -- 231 yards