by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Jan 18, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -2.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Alabama -2.5
Season record
No. 13 LSU: 15-2 (3-2 SEC)
Alabama: 11-6 (2-3 SEC)
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LSU - Alabama preview, analysis and prediction
Part of me is very intrigued at the Alabama Crimson Tide opening as 2.5-point favorites against the No. 13 LSU Tigers, but I can’t side with the favorite here.
LSU might be coming off a 7-point loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks, but that slight setback shouldn’t deter anyone from thinking the Tigers are one of the best teams in the SEC. That loss may have ended a three-game winning streak, but you should chalk that to a tough night for LSU.
The Tigers’ starters combined to shoot 11 of 34 from the floor led by Eric Gaines’ 14 points, and LSU shot just 38.2 percent and 5 of 19 from 3-point range.
The way LSU has played as of late, don’t think that it’ll happen twice.
"Arkansas made a ton of plays down the stretch," LSU coach Will Wade said. "We turned the ball over too much and we got outrebounded. We missed some free throws. That is going to get you every time. We just weren't as clean as we needed to be coming down the stretch."
LSU’s defense is going to be what we talk about heading into March. It’s a group that’s only allowing 57 points per game, good for seventh in the country. No doubt that the Alabama offense is going to provide a test for that group, with the Tide averaging 81.8 points per game (14th best in the country).
Alabama has been able to score the past three games, but that three-game losing streak has come with giving up a ton of points the other end. Once ranked in the top 25, Alabama lost to Missouri, Auburn and Mississippi State in the course of a week.
The latter two may not be the biggest deals considering how good both teams have been, but the Mizzou loss was a sharp crash back down after an impressive start to the season. January is usually the time to see which teams will separate from the pack, and Alabama has taken a nosedive from me believing they can do something in postseason play.
LSU getting 2.5 is not an option that’s going to happen often, and you need to take full advantage of that spot. The Tigers are 3-0 this season when the line is between +3 and -3, while as a road dog, they’re 7-4 against the spread of 3 points or less. While Alabama’s offense has been reliable on the over, the Tide are 0-6 this season ATS off consecutive overs.
Give me LSU to bounce back in a big way and to show the country how good that defense really is. LSU by 10
Betting trends
The under is 4-0 in LSU's last four following a straight-up loss.
LSU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss.
Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.
The favorite is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
Projected starting lineup
LSU:
PG: Eric Gaines
SG: Brandon Murray
SF: Mwani Wilkinson
PF: Darius Days
C: Efton Reid
SF: Mwani Wilkinson
PF: Darius Days
C: Efton Reid
Alabama:
PG: Jahvon Quinerly
SG: Jaden Shackelford
SF: Keon Ellis
PF: Juwan Gary
C: Charles Bediako
SF: Keon Ellis
PF: Juwan Gary
C: Charles Bediako
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
