Louisville Cardinals vs USC Trojans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/27/2023

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Louisville -7, USC +7; Over/Under:  59 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Louisville -7, USC +7; Over/Under:  59 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Louisville -7, USC +7; Over/Under:  59 points

Louisville Cardinals:  10-3 (7-1) (2nd place, ACC)

USC Trojans:  7-5 (5-4) (6th place, Pac-12)

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Louisville Cardinals:  lost their last game at a neutral site against the Florida State Seminoles 16-6.

USC Trojans:  lost their last game at home against the UCLA Bruins 38-20.

Louisville is entering this game with a 10-3 record overall and they have a 7-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 2-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Florida State 16-6. Jack Plummer was the starting QB and he completed 14/36 passes for 111 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jawhar Jordan led the team in rushing yards with 52. Jamari Thrash led the receivers with 57 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Josh Minkins led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Storm Duck and Ramon Puryear each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

USC is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 5-4 record in their conference games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against UCLA 38-20. Caleb Williams was the starting QB and he completed 31/42 passes for 384 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. MarShawn Lloyd led the team in rushing yards with 17. Brenden Rice led the receivers with 147 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Jaylin Smith and Bear Alexander each led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Jaylin Smith, Jack Sullivan, and Solomon Byrd each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Louisville listed as a 7 point favorite in this Holiday Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Louisville has looked great in their games all season with their 10-3 record overall and their 7-1 conference record which took them to their conference championship. Louisville did fall short against FSU in the finals but they still had a really good season with Brohm only in his 1st year coaching and they don't have many key players entering the portal either. They will be looking to bounce back from the ACC Championship and finish their season with a win here to carry that over into next season too and continue to build this program that took a big step this season. Meanwhile, USC hasn't looked great this season with their 7-5 record overall and they have been giving up a ton of points all year as bad defense was a big problem for them. They also have a lot of players entering the transfer portal along with the NFL Draft, including their starting QB and a few other starters on their offense. USC didn't have the season they wanted either so this is a meaningless game for them as they look to rebuilding the program next year for another run at a National Championship. The best way to place a bet here is on Louisville to cover the spread in this game. 

Louisville USC Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Wednesday, December 27, 2023 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Louisville 41 USC 21.

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Louisville Cardinals: 13-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 10-3 ATS after playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored. 13-5 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points. 34-18 OVER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 16-8 OVER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 

USC Trojans: 2-10 ATS in minor bowl games (played in December). 15-23 ATS in all games. 7-14 ATS after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 27-11 OVER in all games. 10-3 OVER after allowing 37 points or more last game. 9-1 OVER after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Louisville Cardinals:  J. Jordan (RB) Ques Wed - Undisclosed. B. Perry (DB) Ques Wed - Undisclosed. R. Brown (OL) out for season - Leg. M. Griffin (DB) out for season - Leg.

USC Trojans:  M. Lemon (WR) Ques Wed - Undisclosed. R. Brown (WR) Ques Wed - Hamstring. C. Williams (QB) Out Wed - Undisclosed. R. Davis (LB) out for season - Wrist. J. Covington (CB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. Z. Branch (S) out for season - Knee. K. Foreman (DL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.

“We just couldn’t convert. We had chances to convert and we were not able to make those plays. Guys have to understand you have to make contested plays. ... We were not able to make those. And after that we really started to stink it up on offense in the fourth quarter.” - Jeff Brohm after his team’s loss against FSU in their last game which was the ACC Championship.

“Very, very disappointing. I mean, there’s no other way to put it. I told the guys in the locker room I’ve clearly not done a good enough job in the second half of the season getting this team ready to go. ... We just didn’t play good enough in any way.” - Lincoln Riley after his team’s loss against UCLA in their last game of the college football regular season. 

WR Thrash, Jamari 

WR Calloway, Jimmy  

WR Coleman, Kevin 

TE Lifson, Josh 

QB Plummer, Jack 

RB Jordan, Jawhar 

WR Hudson, Kyron 

WR Singer, Dorian 

WR Washington, Tahj 

TE McRee, Lake 

QB Moss, Miller 

RB Jones, Austin

Passing: J. Plummer (3063)

Rushing: J. Jordan (1128)

Receiving: J. Thrash (858)

Touchdowns: J. Jordan (14)

Passing: C. Williams (3633)

Rushing: M. Lloyd (820)

Receiving: T. Washington (963)

Touchdowns: B. Rice (12)

Coaches:

Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (1st season)

USC Trojans: Lincoln Riley (2nd season)