Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/17/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Venue:  Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Louisville -3.5, SMU +3.5; Over/Under:  167.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Louisville -3.5, SMU +3.5; Over/Under:  167.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Louisville -3.5, SMU +3.5; Over/Under:  167.5 points

Louisville Cardinals:  19-6 (8-4) (7th place, ACC)

SMU Mustangs:  17-8 (6-6) (8th place, ACC)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Big Al McMordie is on a HOT STREAK in college basketball on a 25-17 CBB RUN for +$6,110 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Louisville Cardinals:  5-0  last 5

SMU Mustangs:  2-3  last 5

Louisville is entering this game with a 19-6 record overall, an 8-4 record in conference games, and they are 3-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Baylor Bears in their last game. Mikel Brown Jr. led the team in points in that game with 29 while J'Vonne Hadley was next on the team with 20. Mikel Brown Jr. led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Sananda Fru led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 56% from the field, 44.4% from 3-point range, and 90% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 86.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70.9 PPG against them. Louisville has an ATS record of 14-11 this season and their O/U record is 11-14.

SMU is entering this game with a 17-8 record overall, a 6-6 conference record, and they are 13-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Syracuse Orange in their last game. Jaden Toombs led the team in points in that game with 19 while Corey Washington was next on the team with 13. Kevin Miller led the team in assists with 7 in that game while Corey Washington led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 43.3% from the field, 35% from 3-point range, and 76.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 86.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 77.6 PPG against them. SMU has an ATS record of 10-14-1 this season and their O/U record is 15-9-1.

The current betting odds have Louisville listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Louisville has looked good in their games this season with their 19-6 record overall and their 8-4 conference record which has them in the top half of the ACC. They haven't been a great road team though with their 3-4 road record this year. Meanwhile, SMU has looked good in their games this season with their 17-8 record overall and their 6-6 conference record which has them right in the middle of the ACC. They have looked great on their home court too with their 13-2 home record this season. SMU has been rolling in their home games all year, but lately they haven't looked great. They are off a bad road loss to Syracuse in their last one, blowing a double digit lead late, and they are now 2-3 in their last 5 games, struggling against some of the worst teams in the ACC too. Louisville went through a rough patch earlier this season, but they were also missing one of their best players during that time and they have looked a lot better lately since he has returned to the lineup. They are off a big win over Baylor in their last one and they have been rolling now with 5 wins in a row. They haven't looked great in road games this year, but most of those were against good opponents and they have 2 wins in their last 3 road games now. They have also won a majority of their games on this streak by double digits, and that includes their 88-74 win at home over SMU which started this 5 game winning streak. SMU has been falling apart against much weaker teams lately and they don't have the talent to compete with a team like Louisville now that Louisville has found a groove. The best way to place a bet here is on Louisville to cover the spread in this game. 

Louisville SMU Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, February 17, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Louisville 80 SMU 73.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Louisville Cardinals SMU Mustangs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAB predictions and previews.

Louisville Cardinals: 17-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 24-17 ATS on the road in all games. 16-10 ATS on the road versus good shooting teams - making 45% of their shots or more. 5-0 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better. 40-26 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less.

SMU Mustangs: 19-30 ATS in all home games. 4-8 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival. 2-8 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent. 4-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 19-11 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Louisville Cardinals:  None.

SMU Mustangs:  None.

"I love where our team's at. I love my team. Love everything about them. I love the competitive makeup of it. I love the pieces and the talent they bring together. I love their approach. I love their professionalism. I love their selflessness. I love my team. I love my team, and I'm proud of them." - Pat Kelsey after his team’s win against Baylor in their last game. 

"It's a hard loss for us because we did a lot of things well. A lot of second-chance points and more transition points." - Andy Enfield after his team’s loss against Syracuse in their last game. 

M. Brown 

R. Conwell 

S. Fru 

J. Hadley 

I. McKneely

B. Edwards 

K. Miller 

J. Pierre 

C. Washington 

S. Yigitoglu

PPG: Ryan Conwell (18.7)

APG: Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)

Reb/G: Sananda Fru (6.5)

PPG: Boopie Miller (18.9)

APG: Boopie Miller (6.8)

Reb/G: Samet Yigitoglu (8)

Coaches:

Louisville Cardinals: Pat Kelsey (2nd season)

SMU Mustangs: Andy Enfield (2nd season)