by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Feb 20, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center. Chapel Hill, NC
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
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Season record
Louisville: 12-14 (6-10 ACC)
North Carolina: 19-8 (11-5 ACC)
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Louisville - North Carolina preview and analysis
Recent form
Louisville: lost 10 of 12
North Carolina: won 3 of 4
Louisville analysis
Man, these aren't your dad's Louisville Cardinals anymore. We have coaches being fired midway through the season, we have a horrible losing stretch that wouldn't happen often under Rick Pitino, and a partridge in a pear tree or something like that.
But the fact of the matter is it's been 10 of 12 losses for the Cardinals and things are just going up in flames in Louisville. It's not often that this program just goes up in smoke, but literally those two things alone have just made this such a weird time for the Cardinals.
Louisville did snap a seven-game losing streak on Saturday with a 70-61 win over Clemson, which means they do have some life left in this season. How much of it is hard to gauge because conference tournament time usually puts us in this weird situation where things can never be determined until the final result. If you get that in your fortune cookie, you're welcome.
Noah Locke had 15 points in 27 minutes off the bench, and only two players in the starting lineup barely cracked double figures. It's really just the end of days with Louisville. I almost don't want to watch them anymore. This stretch of losing 10 of 12 made me want to rip my hair out every time with no real determination of how to grow it back, knowing I'd probably just let it fall out again the next time I'd watch them.
Nothing will ever be the same until Louisville hires a coach that knows what the hell they're doing and even I don't think that'll happen in my lifetime.
North Carolina analysis
Meanwhile, things are coming up green for those wearing Carolina Blue. The North Carolina Tar Heels are closing in on a 20-win season in the first campaign under Hubert Davis and there might be an NCAA tournament spot within reach should this be a strong finish to the season.
There was a lot of hesitance to get on board the UNC train at the start of the season losing three of their first five, but the Tar Heels have been able to keep things rolling with 16 wins in their next 22 games. If you really thought UNC would find a way to just falter after Roy Williams retired, we were all apparently wrong.
North Carolina is coming off a 65-57 win at Virginia Tech on Saturday with Caleb Lowe scoring 21 points to go with seven assists. That's the kind of star power that has carried UNC to this point, as has the play of big man Armando Bacot with 12 points and 15 rebounds with five blocks.
Bacot reminds me a lot of Kofi Cockburn from Illinois and his ability to dominate the glass as well as in the paint. Whether or not in translates into actual pro production one of these days remains to be seen, but Bacot has been one of the main reasons why North Carolina has been able to stay as competitive as it has this season.
In due time, it may be eventual time for North Carolina to take back a top spot in the ACC, but this is a good first step.
Prediction
I refuse to believe in Louisville for the rest of the way. The fact they've been so bad this whole time with no real direction even after this season makes me just want to hammer the favorite and the eventual winner each time until we don't have to watch this trainwreck of a college program again for a long time. This should be no issue taking the winner. Give me the Heels in what should be a dominant victory. North Carolina by 20
Betting trends
Louisville is 3-10 ATS as a road underdog or pick in its last 13.
Louisville is 10-22 ATS after a game which it covered.
North Carolina is 9-23 ATS following a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds.
North Carolina is 96-60 ATS after allowing 60 points or less the previous game.
Projected starting lineup
Louisville:
PG: Jarrod West
SG: El Ellis
SF: Dre Davis
PF: JaeLyn Withers
C: Sydney Curry
North Carolina:
PG: R.J. Davis
SG: Caleb Love
SF: Leaky Black
PF: Brady Manek
C: Armando Bacot
Statistical leaders
Louisville:
Points: Noah Locke -- 9.7
Rebounds: Malik Williams -- 7.7
Assists: Jarrod West -- 3.0
North Carolina:
Points: Armando Bacot -- 16.1
Rebounds: Armando Bacot -- 12.1
Assists: Caleb Love -- 3.7
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
