Louisville Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 25, 2021
Venue:  Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Where to Watch:  ESPN2


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Louisville -2.5, Florida State +2.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Louisville -2.5, Florida State +2.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Louisville -2.5, Florida State +2.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points

Season Record

Louisville Cardinals:  2-1 (6th place, ACC Atlantic)
Florida State Seminoles:  0-3 (7th place, ACC Atlantic)
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Louisville Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Louisville Cardinals:  won at home on Sep. 17 against UCF 42-35.
Florida State Seminoles:  lost on the road on Sep. 18 against Wake Forest 35-14.

Louisville Cardinals Analysis

Louisville is coming into this game with a 2-1 record overall and is 0-1 in road games where they will be in this game. Their 1 road loss was actually on a neutral site at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in their season opener. They lost that game to the Mississippi State Bulldogs by almost 20. They followed up with 2 home wins against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels and a big upset against the UCF Knights last week. Malik Cunningham was alright but he struggled a bit at the quarterback position completing 23/38 passes for 265 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Braden Smith also got some action there as he completed 1/1 passes for 45 yards and 1 TD. Cunningham led the team in rushing as well with 99 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 carries while Jalen Mitchell was right behind him with 74 yards and 1 touchdown on 16 carries. Marshon Ford had a nice day for the receiving corps leading the team with 100 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on 8 receptions. Qwynnterrio Cole led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. C.J. Avery and Yasir Abdullah both recorded 1 sack each in the game and no one on the defense had an interception in that one. They have scored 96 points in their first 3 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 81 points against them. Their offense is averaging 432.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 408 YPG.

Florida State Seminoles Analysis

Florida State is coming into this game with a 0-3 record overall and is 0-1 in conference games this season. They are also 0-1 when playing in their home games which they will be here. They lost their first 2 games of the season against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, that one coming in overtime, and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. They lost their conference matchup last week against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. McKenzie Milton did not play well in that game completing 11/16 passes for 119 yards and 2 interceptions. Jordan Travis was a little more accurate at the quarterback position completing 5/6 passes for 107 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Their run game did not get much going for them as Treshaun Ward led the team in rushing with 48 yards on 6 carries. Ontaria Wilson had a nice day for the receiving corps with 91 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on 3 receptions, but it was pretty quiet for them otherwise. Jermaine Johnson led the defense with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones, also having 0.5 sacks in that one. Derrick McLendon II led the defense in sacks with 1.5 while Sidney Williams came away with the only interception in the game. They have scored 69 points in their first 3 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 96 points against them. The Florida State offense is averaging 362.7 YPG while their defense is allowing 421.7 YPG.


Louisville vs Florida Prediction

FSU is going to come desperately for a win in this game. They will be at home here and have yet to win a game all season. They are also down in the conference already with that 0-1 record. This will be Louisville's first road game of the season that is not on a neutral site and the fans could sway the game for the Seminoles. The Seminoles played really well in their home game against Notre Dame, almost pulling off the upset losing that one in OT. Louisville is coming off of a huge upset win against UCF in the dying seconds of that game. This will be a let down spot for them here. Florida State will cover this small spread and come away with the upset win for their first of the season.
Louisville Florida Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 25, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Florida State 35 Louisville 31.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Louisville Cardinals: 7-3 ATS as a favorite. 14-12 ATS in all games. 
Florida State Seminoles: 8-16 ATS in all games. 4-8 ATS as an underdog.

Key Injuries

Louisville Cardinals:  S. Werts (WR) Out indefinitely - Lower Body injury.
Florida State Seminoles:  D. Williams (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. L. Warner III (DE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. T. Shrader (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.

Players to Watch

Louisville Cardinals: Ahmari Huggins-Bruce is one player to watch in this one. He leads his team in receiving yards and will need another big game here to help his team get a road win and a conference win. Look for him to get open and make some good catches in this game.
Florida State Seminoles: Jashaun Corbin is one player to watch here, He leads his team in rushing yards and in touchdowns scored. He will need to step it up and get even more involved if they want to pull off the upset. Keyshawn Helton is also a player to watch, He will need to get some big runs in so they can throw the ball down the field more and relieve some pressure off the QB.

Notable Quotes

"We wanted to have a lot of energy more than to be physical and all that. We just wanted to be able to fly around and play hard because we knew it was going to be a hard fought game." - Scott Satterfield after their upset win over UCF.
"No way did we ever give ourselves a chance to play winning football. We continue to see the mistakes that cost us in the previous weeks." - Head coach Mike Norvell after a loss against Wake Forest.

Starting Lineups

Louisville Cardinals
WR Marshall, Justin 
WR Watkins, Jordan 
WR Smith, Braden 
TE Melton, Dez 
HB Ford, Marshon 
QB Cunningham, Malik 
RB Mitchell, Jalen 
Florida State Seminoles
WR Helton, Keyshawn 
WR Wilson, Ontaria 
WR Parchment, Andrew 
TE McDonald, Camren 
QB Milton, McKenzie 
RB Corbin, Jashaun 
TB Toafili, Lawrance 

Statistical Leaders

Louisville Cardinals
Passing: M. Cunningham (734)
Rushing: J. Mitchell (213)
Receiving: A. Huggins-Bruce (174)
Touchdowns: M. Cunningham (6)
Sacks: Y. Abdullah (2)
Tackles: K. Duncan Jr. (19)
Florida State Seminoles
Passing: M. Milton (300)
Rushing: J. Corbin (280)
Receiving: O. Wilson (89)
Touchdowns: J. Corbin (2)
Sacks: J. Johnson (4.5)
Tackles: J. Johnson (11)
Louisville Cardinals: Scott Satterfield (3rd season)
Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

81 degrees F mostly sunny, 64% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 6 mph wind speeds NE.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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