by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Nov 17, 2021
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Louisville -20.5
BetMGM: Louisville -19.5
Caesars: Louisville -20
Season record
Louisville: 5-5 (3-4 ACC)
Duke: 3-7 (0-6 ACC)
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Louisville - Duke preview and analysis
Last week
Louisville: won 41-3 vs. Syracuse
Duke: lost 48-17 at Virginia Tech
The Louisville Cardinals will have a chance to clinch bowl eligibility on Thursday when they hit the road for the final time this season, facing the conference winless Duke Blue Devils.
Louisville has hit a rough patch over the past month, losing three of five and falling deep out of favor in the ACC. The Cardinals are coming off a 41-3 win, however, at home against the Syracuse Orange. Quarterback Malik Cunningham totaled five touchdowns (four passing).
Despite that six-point loss to the Clemson Tigers the week prior, the Cardinals have gone consecutive weeks without a turnover for the first time since November 2017 against Syracuse and Kentucky. The Cardinals have done a great job keeping hold of the ball this year compared to last, cutting the turnovers in half (12) from last year (24).
Cunningham has been one of the reasons for that, but the problem with the Louisville signal-caller is more to do with his inability to throw the ball when called upon. Running the ball, he’s one of the best in the conference. He ran for his 16th touchdown last week, good for most in the ACC and fourth in the nation.
Defensively, the Cardinals put a clamp on the Syracuse offense to only 183 total yards. The Orange showed once again that the only noteworthy offensive player is running back Sean Tucker (19 carries, 95 yards) because Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader threw for a grand total of 46 yards on just 10 of 18 passing.
The Cardinals can become bowl eligible for the first time since 2019 with a victory when they played in the Music City Bowl against Mississippi State. They’ll have a great chance at that when they face a Blue Devils team that has lost six straight following a 3-1 start and have lost by 25 points in all but one of their conference games.
In its 31-point loss to the Virginia Tech Hokies last week, Duke was held to just 343 total yards and didn’t come close to covering the 13-point spread it was awarded. Between two quarterbacks, Riley Leonard and Jordan Moore combined for 147 yards and a touchdown but were combined to throw 13 of 28. Leonard was 7 of 16, while Moore wasn’t any better at 6 of 12.
Moore did well running the ball for 113 yards and a touchdown, but no one else really could accomplish anything, especially Duke’s defense. The Blue Devils front gave up 297 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Braxton Burmeister had the easiest 215-yard, three-touchdown performance of the season.
Duke will have one more home game after this week, which will signal a much-needed end to this group. The lone bright spot is senior running back Mataeo Durant, the second-leading rusher in the ACC with 1,095 yards and nine total touchdowns. He’s 141 yards behind Steve Jones’ single-season rushing mark of 1,236 yards. Coming off just 33 against Virginia Tech, and considering how the Louisville defense played last week, the odds aren’t in his favor this week.
Prediction
The Cardinals have opened as 19-point favorites while creeping toward three touchdowns, and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t be the case again this week. Louisville should have no problem running the ball, both from the quarterback and running back, to cruise to an easy road win. Louisville by 24
Betting trends
Louisville is 1-5 ATS in its last six off a home win against a conference opponent.
Louisville is 5-1 ATS this season after committing one or fewer turnovers the previous week.
Duke is 6-16 ATS against conference opponents the last three seasons and 4-20 straight up.
Duke is 2-8 ATS the past three seasons following a loss by 21 or more.
Statistical leaders
Louisville:
Passing: Malik Cunningham -- 2,286 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Malik Cunningham -- 709 yards, 16 TD
Receiving: Jordan Watkins -- 489 yards, 3 TD
Duke:
Passing: Gunnar Holmberg -- 2,034 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Mataeo Durant -- 1,095 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Jake Bobo -- 660 yards, 1 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
