by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Dec 13, 2021First Responder Bowl
Game time: 3:15 p.m. ET; Dec. 28, 2021
Venue: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Louisville -1
BetMGM: Louisville -1.5
Caesars: Louisville -1.5
Season record
Air Force: 9-3
Louisville: 6-6
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Air Force - Louisville preview and analysis
If you’re a fan of running quarterbacks, the First Responder Bowl is for you.
To be frank, this matchup between the Air Force Falcons and Louisville Cardinals isn’t this all-powerful matchup of running offenses. We’re comparing the top-ranked rushing attack in the country in Air Force against one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation in Malik Cunningham.
What changes this game, and what’s going to be the interesting matchup for this game is not the battle between the running games, but the battle between Air Force’s defense and Cunningham.
Air Force has given up 288.1 total yards per game; almost 95 of them have come on the ground. Cunningham totaled 37 touchdowns this season (18 passing, 19 rushing). He completed 62 percent of his passes, which is about where he’s been for the last three years. His 2,734 yards were his most as a starter, and him coming back for his senior year is bound to be a draft-stock type of year for the Montgomery, Alabama native.
But the key to beating Cunningham and slowing down the Louisville offense is to make him throw the football. Good defenses will give him fits; he completed just 60 percent against Clemson, 39.3 percent against North Carolina State and 52.9 against Boston College. If he struggles and he’s left to run, it’s a one-dimensional offense Air Force can take advantage of.
Leading that Air Force defense is Vince Sanford and his team-leading 9.5 sacks; Jordan Jackson also had seven from the interior defensive line.
Air Force was considered the darkhorse of the Mountain West for the sole purpose of that stingy defense. It also helps that the triple-option attack for the Falcons has been at peak efficiency. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels talled for 1,637 total yards and 14 touchdowns, while running back Brad Roberts had 1,279 yards on 4.6 yards per carry to go along with 13 touchdowns.
Louisville is going to need to find a way to slow that down, and it’s hard to picture the Cardinals trying to slow down a one-dimensional offense. They held teams to 245.1 yards passing this season, which won’t be tested either way. The running game and nearly allowing 157 rushing yards a game is going to be what tests Louisville in the long run.
Prediction
The strong combination of Air Force’s ability to score in the 30s while holding teams to less than 20 is such a strong indication for the test that lies in store for Louisville. Air Force coach Troy Calhoun has implemented a long-standing culture that has resulted in success, and he’ll get his group up for the challenge of this one. Air Force by 14
Betting trends
Louisville is 4-1 ATS off a home loss in their last five.
Air Force is 3-2 ATS in its last five as an underdog.
Air Force is 10-2 ATS off an over the previous game.
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
