by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 20, 2021
Venue: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Where to Watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: ULL +4.5, Liberty -4.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: ULL +4.5, Liberty -4.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: ULL +4.5, Liberty -4.5; Over/Under: 53 points
Season Record
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: 9-1 (1st place, Sun Belt Group B)
Liberty Flames: 7-3 (3rd place, FBS Independents)
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Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs Liberty Flames Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: won on the road on Nov. 13 against the Troy Trojans 35-21.
Liberty Flames: lost on the road on Nov. 6 against the Ole Miss Rebels 27-14.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Analysis
ULL is coming into this game with a 9-1 record overall and they are 4-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They lost their first game of the season and they have gone on a 9 game winning streak since then, coming into this one off of another win in their last game. Levi Lewis played well in their last game as he completed 14/21 passes for 166 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chris Smith had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 102 yards on 15 carries while Montrell Johnson and Lewis each ran in 1 TD on their own. Michael Jefferson led the receivers with 71 yards and 1 touchdown on 2 receptions while Dontae Fleming and Kyren Lacy caught the other touchdown passes with 1 each. Ferrod Gardner led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones. Andre Jones, Kris Moncrief, and Chauncey Manac all recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while Gardner had the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 312 points in their 10 games this season averaging 31.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 192 points against them allowing 19.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 420.1 YPG while their defense is allowing 357.8 YPG.
Liberty Flames Analysis
Liberty is coming into this game with a 7-3 record overall and they are 4-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 2 of their last 3 games but are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game which snapped a 2 game winning streak that they were on. Malik Willis did not play well in that game as he completed 16/25 passes for 173 yards and 3 interceptions. Shedro Louis had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 101 yards and 1 touchdown on 7 carries while Joshua Mack was right behind with 98 yards on 19 carries. Willis also ran in 1 TD himself in that one. Demario Douglas led the receivers with 56 yards on 5 receptions. Storey Jackson led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones. Jackson also led the defense in sacks in that game with the only 2 for them while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception in that one. They have scored 351 points in their 10 games this season averaging 35.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 187 points against them allowing 18.7 PPG. Their offense is averaging 446 YPG while their defense is allowing 316.6 YPG.
Louisiana vs Liberty Prediction
ULL is coming into this game as a 4.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. ULL has been playing very well this season with only 1 loss all year and that came right at the beginning of the regular season. Liberty had a great start to the season but they have not been playing as well in their recent games. Both of these teams are going to be able to move the ball well on offense here. This should be a closer game as ULL is no push over so the best bet to place in this game is on ULL to cover the spread here.
Louisiana Liberty Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 20, 2021 (4:00 pm ET start time) is Liberty 33 ULL 30.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: 10-18 O/U as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 29-33 O/U when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 48-53 O/U as an underdog. 57-68 O/U after playing a conference game.
Liberty Flames: 39-17 ATS in all games. 17-9 ATS as a favorite. 12-4 ATS as a home favorite. 15-6 ATS in home games. 22-12 ATS after playing a non-conference game.
Key Injuries
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: T. Wisham (RB) Out Sat - Illness. D. Bonnee (WR) Out Indefinitely - Lower Body injury. T. Byce (RB) Out Indefinitely - Upper Body injury.
Liberty Flames: K. Zachary (DL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. A. Jackson (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. J. Lofton (WR) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. J. Kourtis (OL) Out Indefinitely - Knee injury.
Notable Quotes
“He’s got a good group of skill players around him. We had balance on offense. We stayed ahead of the sticks. And I think we’re settling in at receiver, at tight end, at running back and certainly up front.” - Billy Napier on his offense this season.
“I hope that what we have planned is the correct plan, but it certainly comes with some uncertainty. How many [scholarships] do you save? Truthfully you’ve got to hope and pray that your team stays the way it is, too. It’s a new world for sure.” - Hugh Freeze on his plan for the program going into next year.
Starting Lineups
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
WR LeBlanc, Peter
WR Jefferson, Michael
WR Williams, Jalen
TE Johnson, Neal
TE Lumpkin, Johnny
QB Lewis, Levi
RB Smith, Chris
Liberty Flames
WR Shaa, Kevin
WR Frith, Noah
WR Stubbs, DJ
TE Huntley, Johnny
QB Willis, Malik
RB Mack, Joshua
Statistical Leaders
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Passing: L. Lewis (2108)
Rushing: C. Smith (762)
Receiving: M. Jefferson (332)
Touchdowns: M. Johnson (10)
Liberty Flames
Passing: M. Willis (2159)
Rushing: M. Willis (755)
Receiving: D. Douglas (623)
Touchdowns: M. Willis (10)
Coaches:
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: Billy Napier (4th season)
Liberty Flames: Hugh Freeze (3rd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
