by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Dec 21, 2022Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Houston -7; Houston -260, ULL +220; O/U 57
FanDuel: Houston -7; Houston -265, ULL +215; O/U 56.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Houston -7; Houston -263, ULL +210; O/U 57
Season record
ULL: 6-6
Houston: 7-5
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Louisiana - Houston preview, analysis and prediction
Louisiana analysis
The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns finished the year 6-6 and needed a win in their final game in order to clinch bowl eligibility. That’s exactly what happened in their 41-13 win at Texas State while being 5-point favorites. Against the spread hasn’t worked well for them as of late with going 2-3-0 ATS in their last five to end the season.
The Cajuns overcame a 2-3 start to finish 6-6 thanks to going 4-3 in the last seven with wins over Marshall, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern. Quarterback Chandler Fields threw for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
This is the first meeting since 2006 when ULL won 31-28 in a non-conference matchup. A lot has changed then with Houston being a Power 5 team and whatnot. The ULL offense, for example, isn’t as great as it used to be. ULL averages about 368 total yards per game and puts up 27 points a contest.
The defense isn’t any better, but it’s not horrible. This is a unit that averages 362 yards given up per game with 142 on the ground. Against a Houston team that likes to pass the ball, you’re going to see a little bit more balance when it comes to Houston. Quarterback Ben Wooldridge was the starter, but he’s out for the season with a lower-body injury. Fields has come in and been mostly average. He’ll need to be at his best to give ULL a chance.
Houston analysis
The Houston Cougars go as far as quarterback Clayton Tune takes them. The senior quarterback had a tremendous season, throwing a nation-best 37 touchdown passes to only 10 interceptions. He’s also 155 yards away from a 4,000-yard campaign. He’s likely to get it against this ULL defense.
The Cougars went 5-2 in their final seven down the stretch but have not been a great spread team, going 1-4-0 against the spread in their last five. The only cover was a 42-3 win at East Carolina in which the Cougars were actually 6-point underdogs. When they’ve been favored, it hasn’t worked out well for Houston. And as you’ll notice here, they’re laying 7.5.
During their 37-30 loss to Tulsa to close the regular season, Houston didn’t find enough balance throughout their offense. Tune threw for 386 yards and two touchdowns, but completed 26 of 47 passes to get there. If you can keep that offense off the field long enough, you’re going to find ways to stay in games.
The problem is the Houston offense is far too much firepower for the ULL defense to contain. They’ll find that out in short order.
Prediction
Houston has covered its last four against the spread when facing Sun Belt Conference opponents. The over has also cashed in the last four Houston games following an outright loss. If this goes to a shootout, I trust Tune and co. more than Tulsa. Houston by 17
Betting trends
Houston is 12-2 ATS off an upset conference loss as a home favorite since 1992.
Houston is 7-0 ATS on the road after gaining 6.25 yards per play or more in 4 straight games since 1992.
Louisiana is 0-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game in the past 2 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Louisiana:
Passing: Ben Wooldridge – 1,661 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Chris Smith – 579 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Michael Jefferson – 810 yards, 7 TD
Houston:
Passing: Clayton Tune – 3,845 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Clayton Tune – 491 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Nathaniel Dell – 1,354 yards, 15 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
