by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Friday, Nov 05, 2021
Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 6, 2021
Venue: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: ULM +3.5, Texas State -3.5; Over/Under: 59 points
Bet365: Point Spread: ULM +3.5, Texas State -3.5; Over/Under: 59 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: ULM +3.5, Texas State -3.5; Over/Under: 59 points
Season Record
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: 4-4 (2nd place, Sun Belt Group B)
Texas State Bobcats: 2-6 (4th place, Sun Belt Group B)
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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Texas State Bobcats Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: lost on the road on Oct. 30 against the Appalachian State Mountaineers 59-28.
Texas State Bobcats: lost on the road on Oct. 30 against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 45-0.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Analysis
The UL-Monroe Warhawks are coming into this college football game with a 4-4 record overall and they are 0-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 6th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 2-3 in their conference games this season. They have 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a loss to App State in their last game which snapped a 2 game winning streak that they were on. Jiya Wright really struggled a lot in that game as he completed 9/17 passes for 158 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Chandler Rogers also got a few snaps at the quarterback position and threw 1 interception as well. Wright also led the team in rushing with 91 yards and 1 touchdown on 20 carries while Jakyle Holmes was right behind with 76 yards and 1 touchdown on 2 carries. Jevin Frett led the receivers with 40 yards on 1 reception while Dariyan Wiley caught the only touchdown pass for them in that one in what was a really quiet day for the receiving corps. Jabari Johnson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones while Zack Woodard was right behind him with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. No one on the defense recorded a sack or an interception for them in that game. They have scored 178 points in their 8 games this season averaging 22.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 300 points against them allowing 37.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 312.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 459 YPG.
Texas State Bobcats Analysis
Texas State is coming into this game with a 2-6 record overall and they are 1-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 5th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 1-3 in their conference games this season. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and are coming into this one on a 3 game losing streak after losing to ULL in their last game. Tyler Vitt had a very bad game in that one as he completed 6/13 passes for 42 yards and 1 interception. He also led the team in rushing with 94 yards on 15 carries while Brock Sturges had 44 yards on 7 carries. Marcell Barbee led the receivers with 17 yards on 1 reception in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. Troy Lefeged Jr. led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. Jordan Revels recorded the only sack in that game for them while no one on the defense came away with an interception. They have scored 175 points in their 8 games this season averaging 21.9 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 282 points against them allowing 35.3 PPG. Their offense is averaging 337.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 423.5 YPG.
Louisiana-Monroe vs Texas State Prediction
UL Monroe is coming into this game as a 3.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. ULM has not won a game on the road this season but their 3 opponents that they have played were Kentucky and then the 2 best teams in their conference, App State and CCU. They have actually been playing well in their conference games so far. Texas State has been playing very badly in their conference games getting shut out in their last one and riding a 3 game losing streak. ULM is going to come to play here against a team they know they can beat. The best bet to place in this game is on ULM to cover the spread here.
Louisiana-Monroe Texas State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 6, 2021 (3:00 pm ET start time) is ULM 31 Texas State 28.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: 114-135 ATS in all games. 28-31 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 89-96 ATS as an underdog. 62-71 ATS as a road underdog. 61-78 ATS after playing a conference game.
Texas State Bobcats: 52-60 O/U in all games. 20-23 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 32-41 O/U against conference opponents. 22-40 O/U after playing a conference game.
Key Injuries
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: R. Rodriguez (QB) Out indefinitely - Lung injury.
Texas State Bobcats: B. McBride (QB) Ques Sat - Ankle injury. D. Moorer (WR) out for season - Undisclosed injury. W. Jones (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot injury.
Notable Quotes
“But, where we came from, and what our guys have gone through. It does not come easy. We’ve played some teams that have really gotten after us. Did not have a secret number of wins in my desk. First year, in this conference, just want to win a couple of games, just make improvements.” - Terry Bowden on his team’s progression this season.
“We must do better.” - Don Coryell on the performance of the program this season.
Starting Lineups
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
WR Jackson, Zach
WR Lloyd Jr., Fred
WR Boogie Knight
WR Sparks, Jared
TE Rasmussen, Zach
QB Rogers, Chandler
RB Andrew Henry
Texas State Bobcats
WR Marcell Barbee
WR Javen Banks
WR Speights, Chandler
WR Drue Jackson
TE Lanam, Jackson
QB Brady McBride
RB Calvin Hill
Statistical Leaders
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Passing: C. Rogers (962)
Rushing: A. Henry (397)
Receiving: B. Knight (360)
Touchdowns: A. Henry (3)
Texas State Bobcats
Passing: B. McBride (1507)
Rushing: C. Hill (411)
Receiving: J. Banks (439)
Touchdowns: Jahmyl Jeter (4)
Coaches:
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: Terry Bowden (1st season)
Texas State Bobcats: Jake Spavital (3rd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
