by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Saturday, Oct 30, 2021
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 30, 2021
Venue: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: ULM +27.5, APP ST -27.5; Over/Under: 58 points
Bet365: Point Spread: ULM +27, APP ST -27; Over/Under: 58 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: ULM +27, APP ST -27; Over/Under: 57.5 points
Season Record
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: 4-3 (2nd place, Sun Belt Group B)
Appalachian State Mountaineers: 5-2 (2nd place, Sun Belt Group A)
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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: won at home on Oct. 23 against the South Alabama Jaguars 41-31.
Appalachian State Mountaineers: won at home on Oct. 20 against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 30-27.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Analysis
ULM is coming into this game with a 4-3 record overall and they are 0-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 5th conference matchup of the year and they are not oin the best spot right now with a 2-2 record in their conference games this season. Their 2 losses came against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the Georgia State Panthers while their 2 wins came against the Troy Trojans and against South Alabama in their last game. They managed to take the lead in that game in the second quarter and maintained their lead for most of the game, winning in the end. Chandler Rogers played great in that game as he completed 25/35 passes for 369 yards and 4 touchdowns. Andrew Henry led the team in rushing with 88 yards and 1 touchdown on 18 carries. Will Derrick led the receivers with 135 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions while Jeremiah Knight had 75 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions. Traveion Webster led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Caleb Thomas led the defense in sacks with 1.5 in that game while Keilos Swinney and Nick Roberts both came away with 1 interception each in that one. They have scored 150 points in their 7 games this season averaging 21.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 241 points against them allowing 34.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 301.4 YPG while their defense is allowing 450.1 YPG.
Appalachian State Mountaineers Analysis
App State is coming into this game with a 5-2 record overall and they are 3-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 4th conference matchup of the year and they are in a good spot right now with a 2-1 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 loss came against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns while their 2 wins came against the Georgia State Panthers and against Coastal Carolina in their last game. CCU jumped out to an early lead in the first quarter of that game but then App State fought back and the game was back and forth for a lot of the second half until App State finally won the game on a walk-off field goal in the fourth quarter. Chase Brice played a good game in that one as he completed 18/28 passes for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nate Noel led the team in rushing with 82 yards on 16 carries while Camerun Peoples scored the 2 touchdowns on the ground for them. Malik Williams had a very nice day as he led the receivers with 206 yards and 1 touchdown on 10 receptions while Corey Sutton also had a nice day with 113 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions. T.D. Root led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted one while Steven Jones Jr. was right behind with 4 solo tackles. Demetrius Taylor, Nick Hampton, and Caleb Spurlin all led the defense in sacks with 1 each while no one on the defense was able to come away with an interception in that one. They have scored 219 points in their 7 games this season averaging 31.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 168 points against them allowing 24 PPG. Their offense is averaging 456.1 YPG while their defense is allowing 375 YPG.
Louisiana-Monroe vs Appalachian State Prediction
ULM is coming into this game as a 27 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. ULM has not been awful in their last few games and they are coming off of a conference win by 10 points in a game that they went into as an underdog. App State just beat the ranked CCU in their last game and they will be riding high from that. This will be a let down game for them as that was the game they were looking forward to and will not be getting up for ULM in this game. It is unlikely that they will lose the game but to win it by almost 30 points is a bit excessive. The best bet to place in this game is on ULM to cover the spread here as this will be a closer game than the spread suggests.
Louisiana-Monroe Appalachian State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 30, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is App State 35 ULM 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: 14-22 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. 114-134 ATS in all games. 89-95 ATS as an underdog. 62-70 ATS as a road underdog. 61-77 ATS after playing a conference game.
Appalachian State Mountaineers: 45-51 O/U in all games. 10-21 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 36-39 O/U as a favorite. 28-33 O/U against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: R. Rodriguez (QB) Out indefinitely - Lung injury.
Appalachian State Mountaineers: D. Small (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. D. Harrington (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
"I always step back a little bit and realize, this is the first year. It's not only the first year, but a lot of guys offensively who are playing weren't even here in the summer. I try to remember that and not get too upset when things don't go exactly the way we want. But they're a good group of guys and they want to learn." - Rich Rodriguez on the development of ULM throughout the season.
“They have an identity now. I went against Coach (Terry) Bowden when he was at Akron several times when I was at Kent State. ...Those guys are playing with confidence. Coach (Rich) Rodriguez is their offensive coordinator. He’s been an unbelievable play-caller for a long time, and they’re playing with a lot of great effort right now. They’re plus-eight on the turnover battle, and we’re minus-five right now.” - Shawn Clark on their upcoming opponents in this game.
Starting Lineups
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
WR Sparks, Jared
WR Jackson, Zach
WR Knight, Boogie
WR Derrick, Will
TE Rasmussen, Zach
QB Rogers, Chandler
RB Henry, Andrew
Appalachian State Mountaineers
WR Hennigan, Thomas
WR Sutton, Corey
WR Williams, Malik
TE Pearson, Henry
QB Brice, Chase
RB Noel, Nate
Statistical Leaders
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Passing: C. Rogers (959)
Rushing: A. Henry (371)
Receiving: B. Knight (360)
Touchdowns: A. Henry (3)
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Passing: C. Brice (1842)
Rushing: N. Noel (633)
Receiving: C. Sutton (605)
Touchdowns: C. Peoples (10)
Coaches:
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: Terry Bowden (1st season)
Appalachian State Mountaineers: Shawn Clark (3rd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
