by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 26, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 1, 2023
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Rams +1.5, Colts -1.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Rams +1, Colts -1; Over/Under: 45 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Rams +1, Colts -1; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Rams: 1-2 (3rd place, NFC West)
Indianapolis Colts: 2-1 (1st place, AFC South)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Rams: lost their last game on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals 19-16.
Indianapolis Colts: won their last game on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in overtime 22-19.
Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts Preview and Analysis
The Rams are entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Cincinnati Bengals 19-16. Matthew Stafford was the starting QB and he completed 18/33 passes for 269 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Kyren Williams led the team in rushing yards with 38. Puka Nacua led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Ernest Jones IV led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Aaron Donald led the defense in sacks with 1. Ahkello Witherspoon came away with the only interception for them in that game.
The Colts are entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Baltimore Ravens in OT 22-19. Gardner Minshew was the starting QB and he completed 27/44 passes for 227 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Zack Moss led the team in rushing yards with 122. Michael Pittman Jr. led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Zaire Franklin led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Zaire Franklin, Samson Ebukam, and Kwity Paye each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game.
Rams vs Colts Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts are 2-1 this season and they have looked really good in their games. Of all the rookie QB's in the league this year, Richardson has looked the best with the way he has been running this offense. Richardson is dealing with an injury now but the Colts still went on the road to beat the Ravens in their last game and they have shown that their roster is filled with talent on both sides of the ball. They also have a very capable backup QB in Gardner Minshew so no matter who is starting for this team, the Colts always have a chance with both QB's. The Rams are 1-2 this year and both of their losses have been closer in score but their offense has struggled without a good run game and while missing Cooper Kupp. They put up a ton of points on the Seahawks in week 1 but the Seahawks defense has given up a ton of points in all of their games while the Rams offense has been regressing in each game. They only put up 16 points on the Bengals in their last game and struggled a lot in the redzone specifically. The Colts have a good defense that will hold the Rams to field goals while the Colts offense will have no problem moving the ball on this Rams defense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Rams Colts Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 1, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Colts 28 Rams 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
Los Angeles Rams: 3-8 ATS in non-conference games. 7-12 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders. 2-9 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 24-13 UNDER as a road favorite of 3 points or less. 11-6 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses.
Indianapolis Colts: 32-20 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog. 12-7 ATS off 2 consecutive road wins. 35-23 UNDER as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 8-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 44-25 UNDER after a 2 game road trip.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Rams: A. Jackson (OL) day-to-day - Thigh. J. Taylor II (DB) Out indefinitely - Groin. S. Bennett (QB) Out indefinitely - Illness. H. Long (TE) Out indefinitely - Thigh. C. Kupp (WR) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. O. Mathis (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee.
Indianapolis Colts: A. Richardson (QB) day-to-day - Concussion. R. Kelly (C) day-to-day - Concussion. E. Hull (RB) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Woods (TE) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. D. Pinter (G) I-R - Ankle. T. Leo (DE) I-R - Undisclosed. J. Taylor (RB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. G. Avery (DE) I-R - Knee. A. Dulin (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Witt (OT) I-R - Hip. D. Scott (S) I-R - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“It did feel like we were in striking distance. I thought the defense kept us in the game the whole night, and I thought it was really unfortunate, especially early on where we had to settle for field goals where we had some of the looks and some of the opportunities to be able to execute, and we just weren’t able to get it done.” - Sean McVay after his team’s loss against the Bengals in their last game.
“I was in a pretty good groove that point in time. Was really just kind of in that blackout mode where I wasn't thinking too much.” - Matt Gay after kicking the game winning field goal in their win against the Ravens in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Rams
WR Atwell, Tutu
WR Nacua, Puka
WR Jefferson, Van
TE HIGBEE, TYLER
QB STAFFORD, MATTHEW
RB Williams, Kyren
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Downs, Josh
TE Alie-Cox, Mo
QB Richardson, Anthony
RB Moss, Zack
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Rams
Passing: M. Stafford (910)
Rushing: K. Williams (142)
Receiving: P. Nacua (338)
Touchdowns: K. Williams (4)
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: G. Minshew (398)
Rushing: Z. Moss (210)
Receiving: M. Pittman Jr. (230)
Touchdowns: A. Richardson (3)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Rams: Sean McVay (7th season)
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
