by Rod Pearson
Monday, May 04, 2026
Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Lakers +15.5, Thunder -15.5; Over/Under: 213.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Lakers +15.5, Thunder -15.5; Over/Under: 213.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Lakers +15.5, Thunder -15.5; Over/Under: 213.5 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Lakers: 53-29 (1st place, Pacific Division)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18 (1st place, Northwest Division)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Lakers: 7-3 last 10
Oklahoma City Thunder: 8-2 last 10
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview and Analysis
The Lakers are entering the playoffs with a 53-29 record overall this season and they were 25-16 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Houston Rockets. LeBron James led the team in points in that game with 28 while Rui Hachimura was next on the team with 21 points. LeBron James led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Deandre Ayton led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 40.4% from the field, 42.9% from 3-point range, and 58.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 114.6 PPG against them. The Lakers have an ATS record of 50-38 this season and their O/U record is 43-45.
The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 64-18 record overall this season and they were 34-7 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns 4 times in a row. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 31 while Chet Holmgren was next on the team with 24 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein each led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 53.7% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 86.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.9 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 41-45 this season and their O/U record is 46-40.
Lakers vs Thunder Prediction
The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 15.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 64-18 record overall which had them right at the top of the West with the best record in the entire NBA. They have looked great on their home court too with their 34-7 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Lakers have looked good in their games this season with their 53-29 record overall which had them in the top half of the West. They have been a good road team too with their 25-16 road record this year. This is game 1 of a 7-game series between the 1 seeded Thunder and the 4 seeded Lakers in the West for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Lakers are off a 4-2 series win over the Rockets and they managed to get through that series without Doncic and Reaves in the lineup. Reaves came back near the end of the series, but they are still going to be missing Doncic to start this series and that is a huge blow. The Lakers did catch a break in the last series since the Rockets weren't exactly an experienced team in the playoffs and they were also missing their best player, Kevin Durant, for most of those games. The Lakers still found themselves in a sticky situation though, taking a 3-0 series lead right away, but then losing 2 games in a row and almost blowing their lead. They corrected their ways in game 6 and ended up closing the series on the road, but they still aren't at full strength now and they are playing the best team in the NBA who are also the defending champions. The Thunder have been rolling lately as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games and they once again swept their opponent in the 1st round. They have also had a week off so they have the rest on their side and the Lakers couldn't really do much in the regular season to slow down this Thunder team, even when healthy. The Lakers were able to get by the Rockets in the 1st round, but the Thunder are a completely different animal and they don't have the talent to compete at the moment. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game.
Lakers Thunder Prediction: Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, May 5, 2026 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 123 Lakers 101.
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NBA Betting Trends
Los Angeles Lakers: 12-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 9-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or less. 26-17 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 free throws/game or less. 7-3 OVER off an upset win as a road underdog.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 2-6 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 15-27 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 9-5 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5. 30-20 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers: L. Doncic (PG) Out - Hamstring.
Oklahoma City Thunder: J. Williams (SG) Out - Hamstring. T. Sorber (C) Out For Season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“For us to be written off a few weeks ago and win a playoff series is a big deal.” - JJ Redick after his team’s win against the Rockets in game 6 of that series on Friday.
"I first got to know him when he was doing TV, because they'll do production meetings. So I've had sit-downs with him. I've enjoyed my time with him. I have kept in light contact with him since he got the job. But I think he's done an exceptional job in, obviously, a high-profile market, with a high-profile team. He's just put his head down and put his team in positions of advantage on both ends of the floor. He's done a great job navigating a lot of different situations. And I have high respect for his coaching.” - Mark Daigneault on JJ Redick ahead of his team’s 2nd round series against the LA Lakers.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Lakers
PG Austin Reaves
SG Marcus Smart
SF Rui Hachimura
PF LeBron James
C Deandre Ayton
Oklahoma City Thunder
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Luguentz Dort
SF Cason Wallace
PF Chet Holmgren
C Isaiah Hartenstein
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Lakers
PPG: Luka Doncic (33.5)
APG: Luka Doncic (8.3)
Reb/G: Deandre Ayton (8)
Oklahoma City Thunder
PPG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1)
APG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.6)
Reb/G: Isaiah Hartenstein (9.4)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Lakers: JJ Redick (2nd season)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
